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Free NBA Pick: Utah Jazz vs New Jersey Nets |
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Written by Alleks
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Monday, 19 November 2007 |
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Utah Jazz vs New Jersey Nets So here my first official NBA pick this year. Generaly I don't like to bet on NBA because it takes too much time. But I decided to make thi splay because I see good value in over/under line in this match. Utah Jazz played 11 games so far this season and average game total is huge 214 pts per match. That happened because they played many open matches against run-and-gun teams. But when they flight to the East their offense became less powerful because there teams are more used to play low-tempo style. Let's take a deeper look into their games vs Toronto and Cleveland (classical low tempo teams).
11/07/07 CLE W 103-101
In 4th quarter teams scored 65 points. In 3 quarters before that only 139 points. It is only 46.3 pts per quarter. This game would end in the 180-185 pts range.
11/14/07 @TOR W 92-88
Team scored only 180 points. But in the 4th quarter both teams scored 57 points. So this game had all chances to end under 175 points.
11/16/07 @CLE L 94-99
193 points but in 3rd quarter team scored 60 pts. All others only 44.3 pts per quarter (would end in 177-180 pts range without 3rd quarter).
So as you can see against low tempo teams Utah is usually playing with defense and accept their style. Because Utah Jazz is a team which can play both styles and they know how to beat opponent playing their basketball. It's J.Sloan philosophy and genius.
On other side we have NJ Nets. Average total only 170.5 points and 8 of last 10 games ended with total under 190 points. Also they lost their most important offensive weapon Vince Carter due the injury and since this lost him, Nets score only 77 points per game (allowing ~90 points). Nets is a classic low tempo team and for sure they would not run today against Jazz because they never run with them. And most games between this team were under 190 points total:
01/29/07 UTA 115 - NJ 116
11/08/06 NJ 96 - UTA 89
01/23/06 UTA 89 - NJ 78
11/09/05 NJ 91 - UTA 83
03/18/05 NJ 94 - UTA 80
01/29/05 UTA 82 - NJ 99
Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings. And I think today this trend will be continued. I have calculated my own total for this game and my personal line for this match is only 180 points (93.5-86.5). So I see here 10 pts advantage over the bookie's line and I suggest you to try this pick with medium stake.
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