 VS  San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns Key quotes from ESPN Series Breakdown The Suns traded for Shaquille O'Neal so he could help them get past the Spurs and into the NBA Finals. The idea was that he could continue to mesh with his team in the early rounds of the playoffs. The Suns rule the offensive end, leading the league in overall field goal percentage and 3-point shooting, while playing with the league's highest offensive efficiency and at the league's fastest pace. The Spurs' defense is third in the league. They have the fifth-best field goal percentage defense and hold teams to 95 points per game, which also is third in the league. The Suns average 110 points per game.
With Shaq in the lineup for 28 games, the Suns seem to have found the right formula. They beat the Spurs in both games in which Shaq played, including the March win that really got things started for Phoenix.
Look for San Antonio to try to confuse Shaq with changing defenses, rotations and double teams. Shaq has had some turnover problems against these kinds of strategies.
The Spurs have Tony Parker at full strength, and on offense, everything starts with him. He knows he can get in the paint and score on the Suns, but Michael Finley and Bruce Bowen must hit a high percentage of perimeter shots. Their ability to do so will determine how much room Duncan has to work.
Parker: He missed the first two games against the Suns, but he scored 20 and 21 points in the last two. The Suns don't have an answer for him; he can get wherever he wants against any of their guards. Parker doesn't get a lot of assists, but he creates a lot of havoc. He's the catalyst that breaks the defense down, and he makes the first pass that leads to the assist at the end of the play. He scores in the paint and at the rim with bursts of speed and change-of-pace drives, and knows where to get his points -- he has made only 17 3s all season. He has shot 51 percent from the floor over the past two months. He will guard Raja Bell while Bowen guards Nash.
Stoudemire: He has exploded offensively since Shaq's arrival, but he has not had huge games against the Spurs. He has averaged 29.3 points per game in March and April, but he averaged only 17.5 points in the four games versus the Spurs during the regular season.
Betting preview Looking into regular season I see one very strong trend: both teams usually fails to score 26 points per quarter. Only 7 times teams managed to score 26 points or more (4 times Suns, 3 Spurs). And last 2 games since Shaq came to Phoenix were only 175 and 181 points games however 5 of 8 last quarters ended with total over 46 points what talks about possibility to score around 45-50 pts per quarter in average in the long term in these series.
Prediction: As for me Spurs again will try to slow down game pace and force Suns to play half court basketball. With Shaq on the field Suns should be better prepared for such type of game.
Suns have 3-1 ATS record against Spurs and won 3 of 4 games. They got Shaq to win series against Spurs.. but Spurs and NBA champions and experience they have should be seriuos factor here. I think that Game 1 will be close as all 4 games this year but Spurs should be able to win first game of the series, however I don't want to put any single cent on this pick.
Looking into 4 reg. season games between these clubs, h-2-h history and Shaq-factor I expect this game to end in 185-194 points range. 47-47.5 pts per quarter is expected average total for me in this series and this picks looks like the most logical for pick in a first game. Unfortunately only Suns & Spurs coaches knows real game plan for this series and if it is gonna be defensive match expect low scores.
Predicted score: San Antonio Spurs 97 - 94 Suns
Pick #1: Under 194.5 @ 1.952 PinnacleSports
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