Chris Paul turned 23 on Tuesday. The New Orleans Hornets' talented point guard said he had a low-key birthday, just hanging out with his teammates. The big surprise party might happen Thursday night, courtesy of Paul and his team if they can beat the defending champion San Antonio Spurs yet again by picking up a Game 3 win to take a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference semifinals.
"They say you're supposed to win all your home games. The series doesn't start until the home team loses," Paul said Wednesday. "We understand their backs are against the wall right now but we've got to go in there and understand we really need to steal a game."
"I think that makes a difference when we're on the court in that we really try to play hard for each other and we don't want to see the season end," Paul said.
Neither do the Spurs, who said they've got to do one thing in Game 3: play better.
Whether it's taking care of the ball (they had 28 turnovers in the first two games) or hitting outside shots when Tim Duncan's being doubled, the Spurs said they need to improve the little things in Game 3.
"It sounds, like, easy, but we just have to play better," Tony Parker said. "They just outplayed us the first two games and now we're playing at home and we have to make more shots and play better defense. ... We're going to change stuff but at the end of the day it's just basketball."
Parker and Manu Ginobili said they expect the Spurs to be more physical in Game 3. The two will try to be more aggressive in getting to the rim, something that's been a challenge so far as the Hornets have crowded the lane to force perimeter shooting.
Analysis
Looking into last 5 encounters between these teams I found one trend I can't ignore. Spurs managed to stop Orleans offense only in 3 of 24 quarters (I mean when Orleans scored less than 20 points per game). For this game we have 6.5 handicap for 182.5 points line and it means that bookmakers estimations are 94.5-88. But so far Spurs did not show any signs that they can hold Orleans under 22 points per quarter in average.
Orleans find a way to close Spurs offense in 2nd halves of last 3 games but those game were played in New Orleans. This one will be played in San Antonio where rims are more known, public is hot and confidence level is different. If Spurs can't find recept how to stop Chris Paul & Co. they might me oriented into their own problems. And the main problem they have met so far it's their offense in 3 and 4 quarters. They should not stop playing agressive and make open shots from all distances to win this game. And I today I expect San Antonio to score in the 95-102 pts range.
I can't say that this pick have a lot of value but I expect more offense from Spurs today and think that game will end in the 185-190 pts range.
Predicted score: Spurs 98 - 89 Orleans
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