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Boston Celtics - LA Lakers NBA Finals preview by ESPN.com It's the best preview I have read online so I decided just to copy-paste it here, you can skip and jump to next section if want to read my prediction for NBA Finals Game 1. It's hard to imagine a more intriguing and exciting NBA Finals. Not just because of the storied rivalry between these two franchises, but the individual matchups are just as compelling. Can a young bruiser like Kendrick Perkins make life difficult for a world-class player like Pau Gasol? The same question exists for Rajon Rondo, who has exceeded many expectations this season but now faces veteran point guard Derek Fisher and his multiple rings. Then there's mercurial talent Lamar Odom, against Hall of Famer-to-be Kevin Garnett, who's never been to the Finals before -- few players have the skills to give Garnett fits like Odom can. And can Paul Pierce, a top NBA player with a long career, carry his team to a title against the league's best player, Kobe Bryant?
The strategic matchups will be great to watch as well. Boston played the most dominating defense this season, and played that role well in beating Detroit. The Lakers were a top-three offense once Gasol arrived, and flexed their muscles in overpowering the high-octane offenses of Denver and Utah. But these teams are far from one-dimensional. Boston came through with strong offensive efforts two times in the Pistons series, while L.A. suffocated Tim Duncan down the stretch of the Spurs series. The Lakers did not rebound well in their first two series, but came up with huge and many offensive rebounds against San Antonio. Boston is an excellent team on the glass but will be challenged because its rotations will get extended in looking to help on Bryant while defending all the triangle options and the Lakers' deep shooters. The Celtics prefer a slower game, relying on their defense to strangle the opponents' best options in their half-court sets, but Rondo is a blur with the ball, excelling in the transition game. It is true that the Lakers love to run and push the ball, but they are just as effective in a slower game thanks to sound offensive systems and players. It seems likely that the Celtics will use the same tactics in defending Bryant as the Spurs did, at least to some degree. Keeping him off the free-throw line puts more pressure on him to finish shots. The Celtics will try to limit his chances in the paint by shading him with multiple defenders on dribble drives. Bryant made the Spurs pay for utilizing that strategy by shooting well from the perimeter and playing "fresh" down the stretch. But had the Spurs pounded Bryant all series, he might have scored in bunches from the line but might not have been so good late in games. It will be interesting to see how Boston chooses to quiet a player in the kind of zone Kobe is in. Gasol is another Laker who will probably demand more than just one man to slow him in the half court. He's especially hard to defend if he can knock down his jump shot, especially when the Celtic's big men will need to race back in transition to pick him up quickly -- Gasol is excellent in changing ends and getting great position early in the offense. The Celtics are breathing a sigh of relief now that Ray Allen's offense has returned, and as a whole, the Celtics got big performances from the big three. Allen, Pierce and Garnett all had standout games at different times against the Pistons. Plus, Rondo's penetration helps to create for everyone. And to make matters even better for Boston, Perkins got hustle points and established position against a formidable Pistons front line. No team in the NBA rotates and communicates defensively with the precision and consistency like the Celtics do. Boston's league-leading team defense overshadows the fact that each of their starters is a formidable individual defender. In this series, it will be important to see which guys can guard their own man with minimal help. This Boston team rises and falls with it's defense, and the Celtics have developed a pride, an intensity and a defensive mentality that can not only shut down teams, but can carry them in stretches and keep them in games when their offense struggles. Both teams have playmakers and defensive talents coming off the bench. And both benches are good enough to carry a team to at least one win. Prediction for Game 1As for me 2.65 on Boston to win series represents a value but it's more like "I think in other way than most of the public" and bookmakers probably set their line better than me. In first games of the series I usually try to catch future line movements because later in Game 3, 4.. 7 you will never find value line because they will be fixed and sharped by fresh results. This season teams played 2 times and both times games ended with 201 points in total. I would like to notice that Boston scored 25+ points in 7 of 8 quarters and it force think that Lakers simply can't hold Celtics under 25 points per quarter in constant basis. Another important notice is that Lakes scored 91 and 94 points in those games without P.Gasol. He was not in the team yet when Lakers played against Celtics but with him they should be much more dangerous in offense especialy now when Kobe shows some kind of magical sporting form. Also either of the games was not low tempo (216 and 231 posessions) and I hardly see this game going to be low-tempo because Lakers goal should be to play improved "Atlanta Hawks" style. Do you remember how many problems Celtics had against uptempo Hawks, or fast Lebron-oriented offense in Cleveland, or how many points scored Pistons to win game in Boston? If Lakers want to win against Boston they should score 100+ points and play fast tempo basketball. Boston defensive stats improved in their last series against defensive-minded and offensively troubled Pistons and Cavs but against Lakers it should be match more difficult to defend because they unstoppable player in Kobe face, they have Odom and Gasol who can score points if Boston will decide to concentrate their defense on Kobe like they did against Lebron. Lakes have huge 3-point shooting ability and deep bench. All these factors should force fast tempo and high-scoring series. In last 10 games between Celtics and Lakers all 10 games ended with totals over 192 points. And I expect another high-scoring battle here too. My personal line for this game is something like 102.5-98 in Boston favor and I would not be suprised to see both total to be overscored. I doubt that Celtics will score over 110 points but also I hardly see them defending well against Lakers in up-tempo game. Predicted score: Boston Celtics 106 - 98 LA Lakers Pick: over 191.5 @ 1.96 PinnacleSports
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