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Written by Alleks   
Thursday, 09 November 2006

Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers

Lebron James and his Cavaliers have lost 2 straight games to NBA outsiders Charlotte and Atlanta which are rolling these days while heavy favorites like Dallas, Miami, Detroit and few others including Cleveland are struggling. But stop.. do the Cavs really struggling? They won in SA in perfect style, they beat Wizards at home is season opener, but last 2 games were lost... and the reason is simple: Lebron James is shooting only 57.9% of his free throws.. while his normal percentage is about 75%. That's where king James see a problem according to his words at Covers.com and that's where I see problem in Cavs. But after 2 bad matches I expect Lebron to wake up and concentrate more before every free throw. That's should be enough to normalize things in offense.

Chicago Bulls is a good team this year after Ben Wallace addition but they have only 2-2 ATS record and seems that bookies still overstimate their real strength. And today's line is bit affected by this factor. Cavs like to win by 10-12 points at home and they never stop trashing their opponents at home when they have chance to win with high margin. And against Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers usually have these chances... they just know how to play against Bulls and Bulls don't know how to play against Lebron James. In general you can look back to last season results and notice that if Cleveland wins they usually do this by 10 points (+- 2-3 points) and that's why I like to back when their home HC is less than 5 points.

I expect Cavs to be fully concetrated for today's division game with direct competitors who have been called as possible division winner... Expect Cavs to show today who is a winner.. I see comfortable Cavs win by 12-17 points and here are some trends to watch before betting on this game:

Chicago has lost 15 of 18 in Cleveland, including the last five by an average of 17.0 points.
Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between Clevaland Cavs and Chicago Bulls
Home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Bulls are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.
Bulls are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Cavaliers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss.

Free NBA Pick: Cavs (-4) @ 1.946 PinnacleSports

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Comments
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3gamblers  - nba thursday   |2006-11-10 04:14:47
Gd mrng guys..
i live cleve here,
my other picks are Suns and small bet on
N.O.
3gamblers  - nash/bell injured?   |2006-11-10 06:01:01
shit...
i didnt notice these guys are injured
3gamblers   |2006-11-10 07:17:26
betting 2x on DALL here
unloading my suns bet...
Anonymous   |2006-11-10 08:38:27
yes load the mavs
french-conection   |2006-11-10 08:39:17
3gamblers   |2006-11-10 08:45:49
mavs up 52-45 2nd q...looking good
french-conection   |2006-11-10 09:35:36
how much did u bet on phoe and 2x in dal?
4zsg   |2006-11-10 09:53:17
Cavs 113:94
jayiverson  - well done   |2006-11-10 13:46:16
well done alleks,nice pick~
mturan36  - cavs pics   |2006-11-12 14:57:54
good analsis and good comments well done
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