Game of the DayDallas Mavs at San Antonio Spurs I think that today's central night game is one of the most interesting games to bet on. I watched Dallas and SA newspapers to find some interesting quotes and deciding to comment them from point of view. Dirk Nowitzki: "I wouldn't say we played great basketball in this seven-game winning streak. We did here and there. We had great quarters, great halves. But I don't think there's been a great 48 minutes so far. That's the kind of effort it's going to take down there. If we want to win, we have to be solid the whole game." Ok, Dirk... you're right but let's stay honest. You and your team were good in quarters and halves: against Phoenix where you was more lucky in game ending, against short-benched Blazers, you were better twice against Gazol missing Memphis Grizzlies which are struggling without its leader all this season, and finally you were better against worst NBA team Bobcats, and ok you had really great 3 quarters against Wizards at home when you outscored them 86-50 in last 36 minutes. But Spurs are not injury troubled, they are not short benched, they don't fear you at all and finally they have something to revenge for in front of their public... Dallas has held past three opponents below 86 points; Mavericks were 32-2 last season when holding teams below 90. ... I don't think that Charlotte and Memphis are teams which can score more these days against physically strong Mavs. But what about 51 points in a half time against Wizards in your last game? Did you forget that? What about 103 in defence in your first 8 games of the season? So I don't think that your defence is working really well at this moment and I doubt it will work today against very balanced Spurs offense which struggled to score 100 points only 4 times this season. Nowitzki has averaged 10.1 free-throw attempts past nine games. ... Spurs rank 27th in NBA in 3-point defense (37.6 percent); Dallas averaging 19.6 3-point attempts per game, six more than last season. Ginobili is averaging 19.3 points in past three games; has made 15 of past 23 shots. That's good news.. Both team leaders found their form and team coaches will have more solutions in offense. "It's not going to matter when the playoffs start because it's going to be so far (away)," Parker said. "But I still think it's going to be a great game and we're definitely going to play like we're motivated. " ` `It`s not the same as the playoffs last season,`` Ginobili said. ``The only thing that will make us forget is to have a great season and play them again.`` Don't lie Manu, we all know that Spurs is a team which don't forget such things as Mavs did them in last season playoffs. I am pretty sure that Spurs will try to do their best to make this season record against Mavs 4-0 to show up who is the best of them. And now let's analyze over/under line. The line is set at 190 pts mark. They had 7 games in last season playoffs and we have a lot numbers there but let's take those which I like mostly: quarter totals. They played 28 quarters (not including OT) and the average scoring per quarter is 49.6 points. By the way these teams had only 3 quarters of 28 played for under 44 points. Something to notice for those who plans to bet on under. So the correct line for this match looking back to their h-2-h record in playoff is about 198.5 points. Now let's look into first game when Spurs won 97-91 the total is only 188 points, but hey.. after 3 quarters the score was 72-75 and the average quarter scoring was 49 points (49 points) something really close to their last season playoff quarter norm 198 points per game. And now current form stats. Dallas is 102.5-98.3 (average total 200.8) and Spurs are 103.5-92.5 (196). And what do we have? 201 + 196 divide by 2 and olley op. We have magic number of 198 points again! And I'm pretty sure that these numbers are correct for this matchup according to all possible factors. Conclusion Spurs are home team and at this time they will be double motivated to revenge for last year conference Final when they lost Game 7 OT. Mavs are in form team, but I think that outsiders scalps is not enough to play against Spurs at home. Personally I expect Spurs to score about 105 points and allow somewhere in the 92-96 and earn confident win by 8-15 points. And the total will be... about 196-200 points (I hope that it will be 198 points to prove my logic). Expected score: Spurs 105 - 93 Mavs Free NBA Pick #1: Spurs ML @ 1.52 or (-4.5) if you need higher odds
Free NBA Pick #2: Over 189 @ 189 (play of the day for me)
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat Key press quotes: Miami looks to avoid losing four straight games at AmericanAirlines Arena for the first time in more than three years Friday when it hosts the Orlando Magic. "Even though we are not at full strength, we are not performing to the best of our abilities," said Dwyane Wade, who scored a team-high 18 points against the Spurs.Miami was outrebounded 43-34 on Wednesday, and has had trouble scoring without its 13-time All-Star center. "Even though we are not at full strength, we are not performing to the best of our abilities," said Dwyane Wade, who scored a team-high 18 points against the Spurs.Miami was outrebounded 43-34 on Wednesday, and has had trouble scoring without its 13-time All-Star center. The two teams split their four games last season, with Wade averaging 30.5 points and shooting 52.6 percent in those games. Betting analysis For sure Miami will be better at home but they struggle not only in offense, they are struggling in defence too especially under basket where main offensive power of Orlando Magic is located. Basketball is a game and the more minutes you play it the better results you show. Maybe it was a reason whey reserves played so much minutes against Spurs. Riley is a smart coach and I expect him to find scorers for tonight game, but I doubt that he will find answers in defence. Wade is good against Magic and expect him to show 30+ points performance today to increase his team chances. This game reminds me last week game in New Orlean. If Miami will lose I expect their offense to continue to struggle and low-post Magic offense to play today and final results will be about 87-97, and another scenario I see is Miami to find offense today and both teams will score 90 points. Free NBA Pick #3: Over 183 @ 1.952
Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks Key press quotes: "The simple answer, I guess, is that we need to become the team that played well enough to win four straight games," center Zaza Pachulia said Wednesday night at the Palace of Auburn Hills, site of the latest late-game meltdown, a 103-98 loss to the Pistons in a game Atlanta controlled for most of the night. "The NBA is fun, every game is fun," said Raptor guard T.J. Ford. "Going into each game, it's hard to predict who's going to win. The records don't show how good teams are and I think that's the good thing about the NBA this season." "Morris Peterson (elbow) didn't practise yesterday and will likely have to wait a few more days before he starts another ironman streak." "You look at all the games (and) your season can possibly be turned around in a matter of a couple of possessions." "It will make it exponentially more possible for the Raptors to go on a two-game winning streak if Chris Bosh plays after ducking out of practice to have a sore knee examined yesterday afternoon." Betting analysis: T.J. is right "The records don't show how good teams are" - that's about Hawks I think and Zaza is right too. Atlanta were 4 games close to have 8-0 winning streak but they failed to win last 4 games with bad decisions and instead of 8 winning game streak they have only 4-5 but they were really close to have 8-1 or 7-2 record. And now it's time to jump on them because sooner or later they will cover and why not to do this against defensive-less Raptors allowing 100+ points in 8 of last 10 matches, and I expect them to get over 100 today against hot Atlanta offense where everyone is involved well and Johnson is just crazy. I think that it will be an over game too but I aware of Atlanta defense which sometimes works really well and this kind of game where they need to turn their defense and to limit Raptors under 100 points but Raptors usually score 95 points. So a lot will depend if Atlanta will score more than 104 points but it's 50/50 question for me because Raptors defence was better in last few games. Free NBA Pick #4: Atlanta -2.5 @ 1.78
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