Montepaschi vs. Upim Bologna

For sure Montepaschi is clear favorite of these playoffs series with only 3 losses this season but -16 handicap for Game 1 looks like an slight overstimation of Montepaschi. I agree that they much better team, with better matchups and mentality but -16 is too much as for me at least for playoffs.

Upim was able to fight against Montepaschi in Siena in January when they lost only by 3 points (72:75) and now they are looking even better as team because they spend sometimes to addopt for new schemes under new coach, some trades were made in the midseason and now finaly they looks to find their game rhytm and all players are healthy. Also Upim have many experienced players like Jenkins, Torres, Forte, Mancinelli, Calabria for not to fear playoffs and clear favorites. Offensively they look really impressing with 86.1 pts in avg. in last 10 games. Sure Montepaschi defense would not allow them to score more than 76 points but if they will score at least 72-73 points I think handicap would not be covered by Montepaschi.

I expect close game for 1-2 quarters with Montepaschi taking a lead somewhere in the middle of the game, maybe at some point of the game hosts will have 15+ advantage but Upim will fight for honor and confidence. Expected final margin around 10-13 pts or maybe even less. But only for low-medium stakes.

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