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San Antonio Silver Stars (12-19) at Washington Mystics (16-15)
Sportsbooks Line: Washington -7.5 TOTAL: 156.5 "Right now we're looking at a chance to win 19 games and if you have any pride you want to set a record," Washington Coach Richie Adubato said. "We have to worry about not being complacent since we can't get a higher seed in the playoffs." SA are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. That's a key factors of this game. Silver Stars are already eliminated from the playoff and their only goal is to end this season by giving some experience for bench players. In last game they changed their starting five and this is best sign that they are playing with goal I've already described. And I expect the same from them today. Mystics don't have real chances to get higher seed in the playoffs and they also should give more time for they key players but here we have another key factor. Mystics bench is much better than Silver Stars and they are playing at home where they like to win with large spread after resting their legs after hard battle with Sacramento they should be motivated to win at least with 9-10 points difference.
Silver Stars average stats in last 9 of 10 games (game with Phoenix not included) are 67-76.5, and they scored less than 71 points in 8 of those 9 games. While Mystics are 88.5-73 at home if they win a game. I don't know what should happen to SA win this game so I predict that SA will score a bit more than 70 points and Mystics have to score somewhere in 82-88 range. But be careful with your bet size because Washington may also play with their bench players and they are not obligated to win with large spread.
Predicted score: Washington 84 - 72 San Antonio Bet On: Washington -7.5 (medium stake)
Houston Comets (17-14) at Charlotte Sting (9-22)
Sportsbooks Line: Charlotte 1.5 TOTAL: 143.5 Honestly speaking I like Houston and UNDER here but I don't suggest you to bet on this game only because the reserve players will play here and it's hard to predict how Charlotte key players at home will be able to compete with motivated Houston. So it's better to skip or to bet on under 143.5 (or Houston ML but it's more risky bet). Seattle Storm (17-14) at Detroit Shock (21-9)
Sportsbooks Line: Detroit -5.5 TOTAL: 147 One more game I don't like in today's line. Detroit is much better team and playing at home but they have absolutely no motivation to win this game while Storm are fighting for their playoff position. I think that Detroit will win but Seattle could provide some surprises here. Indiana Fever (19-11) at New York Liberty (9-22)
Sportsbooks Line: New York 5 TOTAL: 134.5 This game is a game where I prefer to look into this season h-2-h stats. Let's look to them together: NY 16 18 22 14 70 137.5
IND 19 32 21 19 91 -12 IND 8 25 22 10 65 139
NY 20 18 13 14 65 78 5.5 What do we have? We have 8 quarters totals: 35 50 43 33 28 43 35 24 Let's remove that 50-points quarter from this line because it is really affecting on this teams scoring norm. Now we have 241 points scored in 7 quarters or 34.5 points per quarter. Such quarter scoring norm will lead us to 138 final total. But we remove 24 points quarter to make this line more fair (because we removed most scoring quarter) we will have 217 points in 6 quarters, 36 points per quarter and 144 total at the end of this game. So according to these team h-2-h stats total line for this team should bet set somewhere in the 138-144 range. As it was in both season games when totals were set at 137.5 and 139 points.
And one more reason why I like this over bet: NY has beat 134 total in 7 of last 10 games, and Indy beat 134 total in 7 of last 10 games too, while their average total in away games this season is 139 points. Predicted score: New York 66 - 72 Indiana Bet on: OVER 134 (medium stake) Connecticut Sun (24-6) at Chicago Sky (4-26)
Sportsbooks Line: Chicago 12 TOTAL: 147.5 This line is too much affected by Connecticut Suns defensive performance in last games. But all those games were they key-games (with LA Sparks) and some of the opponents were defensive minded teams (Sacramento, Houston). And that was a main reason while Connecticut played hard in defence. Because they know that they should play in defence well to win those games because in offense they would not get easy points like this may happen with Chicago. Chicago is allowing 85 points in 8 of last 10 games (games with lows-coring Indy and Minnesota not included). But that's not all I don't understand one more thing. Look at lines history for this teams meetings this season: 7/20/06 CONN 86 - CHI 72 Push -14 O 151.5
6/23/06 CHI 79 - CONN 84 CHI 12 O 142.5 I first game sportsbooks also expected to see some kind of defence from Suns and poor offensive performance from Sky. But the final total was 163 points. In next game they expect more open game and they got it with 158 points and in both games total line was beaten. And the lowest quarter total was in both games was 34 points, while average total is 40.1 points. Connecticut is not a Detroit and I doubt they will be able to limit Chicago so well as Detroit did when they won in Chicago 76-49, and beside of that game Chicago average is 72 points in last 9 games. If they will be able to score at least 70 points today the total will go easily up to 155-160 points because this will be an open game. Predicted score: Chicago 74 - 82 Connecticut Bet On: OVER 147.5 (high stakes)
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