Detroit Shock (28-13) at Sacramento Monarchs (26-14)
Spread: -4.5 Total: 140.5

Game 3 is a crucial game of best of five series, especially when series are tied at 1-1. Today's winner will be one step way from champions title. Sacramento is a great home team with 16-3 record and 79-69.5 average score at home.

They easily won first game by 24 points (95-71) and in Game 2 they had 11 points lead, but they lost 63-73. What was a reason ? The reason is simple:

"We just hit a wall there physically," Whisenant said. "I started seeing my players didn't have any zip."

The collapse actually started in the third quarter. Sacramento missed 20 of its first 24 shots in the second half, scoring just nine points in the fourth while Detroit rode a wave of emotion to the win.

But they still scored 63 points, and they would easily score 70+ points if they would play better in last quarter. But they were tired and that killed them. Detroit won last quarter by 16 points and and won. Generally in all 4 games played this season Sacramento were better and Shock always had problems with this team, but in both their wins this season against Monarchs they closed games with strong 4th quarters (25-9 and 24-11). In all other quarters Sacramento outscored Shock 303-247 (21.6:17,6 per quarter). As you see average of 14 quarters is 39.2 points and today's total set at 141.5 include 4 quarters by 35 points. I think that this line is too much under 'final game status' impression. Yes, defense matters in the finals but seems that for these teams defense means a lot of fouls and free throws. And till now I think that both teams can score 70+ points, and fact that in 6 of lasy 7 games they hit an over proves that over is bet to place here.

Regarding a spread I think that it's worth to try Sacramento to cover spread but I think that we have only 2-3 advantage over the line so I decided to skip this game.

Predicted score: Sacramento 76 - 69 Detroit

Pick: Over 140.5 (medium confidence)

FIBA World Championship Final
Greece - Spain

Pau Gasol misses final with foot injury:

"Tests have confirmed that the player suffers from a partial fracture of his fifth metatarsal in his left foot and will miss the final," said a statement from the Spanish Basketball Federation (FEB)"

Pau Gasol missing could be too much costly for Spain. He is very important player in the paint and he is scoring leader. A lot of combinations need him to be on the court. And this loss will force Spain to change their game plan. I expect that they will count on good shooting abilities and fast tempo basketball which is not suitable for Greeks. Also I want to warn you that loss of key player sometimes is a boost for a team. Especially in the first game without leader, in next games this will affect on team results but when we are talking about one game this should not be a real factor to lay Spain. They are great team with very good chemistry and I expect them to be VERY motivated and very strong unit in tomorrow game.

Greece is a winners-team with killer instinct which is very important in such games. They really have all to compete well in tomorrow game. The only disadvantage why I not 99% sure about their win is that they can underestimate Spain without Gasol. And this could be a problem for them. But Yannakis is a great coach and he will be ready for this game and will find words to motivate his players for this game.

I don't expect very easy win for Greece. I expect this game would be very close one, in the beginning Spain could make a run and take a small 5-6 points lead because of their chemistry and team play. But Greece is used to liquidate those points during a game. They never gave up and sooner or later they will take control over this game. And I hope that they will win it.

Another bet I like in this match is Spain over 70. This summer they never scored less than 75 points, while their average is 90.0 points. In 17 games in a row they score more than 70 points. Yes, they are missing Gasol but that does not matter talking about their total. Without Gasol Spain will be forced to shoot more 3 pointers and penetrate basket from 3 point line. They should be very active in offense if they want to have a chance. And the most important thing that they really can do all what I said here. They have Navarro, Calderon, Garbajosa, Rodriguez and other players who can do this all. Maybe some of you think that Spain had problems in offense with Argentina but you should remember that in first 5 minutes they scored only 5 points, while in other 35 minutes they scored 70 points (2 pts per minute = 80 points per game).

So as conclusion I want to warn you that Finals are games to watch, not to make money. But we are ill, we can't live without betting especially if we are planning to watch game on TV. And that's why sportsbooks business grow up :) Remember about this when you click on "Bet Now" button.

Predicted score: Greece 79 - 73 Spain

Pick: Greece ML @ 1.53 BWIN (medium-high confidence)

Pick: Spain Over 70 @ 1.85 BWIN (medium-high confidence)
or
Pick: OVER 145.5 @ 1.85 (medium-high confidence)

WNBA Finals. Game 2.
Sacramento Monarchs at Detroit Shock
SportsBook Line: Spread -4 Total: 141

These teams like to blow out each other especially this season. I Game 1 Sacramento were shooting 53% FG (3 pt 10 of 19) and forced Detroit to make 24 turnovers. And they won with 24 points difference. Their normal percentage from 3 points line is really good but their norm is 40% if they would should with this percentage they would score 7 3 pointers instead of 10 but that's not all. Monarchs scored 18 points from 24 Shock turnovers. And here is a key for that win as I think.

"It ain't about talking, but I guess you still might have to ask: How bad do you want it?" Ford said after Thursday's practice. "If you want to give them the trophy, then go ahead. But I ain't there. You've got to want it; you've got to have heart. If you don't want it by this point, you can't change much."

Detroit should wake up today and give Monarchs a fight today... a last fight probably at their home arena in this final series. If they will be able to limit their turnovers and will activate they defense I doubt that Monarchs will score more than 68 points, while Shock score at least 75 point. They scored 71 by doing 24 turnovers in first game. Just get 6-7 possessions more by doing their average of 15 TO and they will score 75-78 points. But this could even more today because of revenge factor.

Predicted score: Detroit 81 - 69 Sacramento

Pick: Detroit (-4) (medium-high confidence)

I'll be short just don't have time:

Spain - Argentina
In both friendly matches Argentina failed to score 20+ poins per quarter. Before this game argentian coach said that he plans slow down game tempo and make this game 75 points game. I expect that his game will be realized tomorrow and this game will end in the middle of 70-80.

Spain is a bit better team but I would like to see Argentina winning tomorrow.

Predicted score: ARG 78 - 74 ESP

Pick: UNDER 158.5 (medium confidence)

USA - Greece
USA will have big troubles against tough Greek zone defense. While greek will try to use long combinations in offense because americans are not used to defend against european style attacks. Greece is scoring 81.6 in average on this tournament while USA allow 80.6 pts per game. I expect that Greece would be forced to make 10-15 attacks more than they used to do and it should increase their offensive performance.

This game is very risky to play on HC, I honestly speakin like Greece HC +10.5 but I am choosing their individual total.

Predicted score: Greece 81 - 85 USA

Pick: Greece Over 76.5 (medium confidence)