|
Besancon - Le Havre
Both teams great well in offense. Besancon last 11 games average total is 160 (84-76), and Le Havre last 12 games average total was 155 points including games with defensive minded Cholet, LeMans and Pau Orthex in LNB Day 1. With open style opponents their total was 160. And more of that Besancon was most scoring team in Division B last season and seems that they plans to continue their style this season especially at home. While bookies don't know such as we know about Besancon - over in their games is must-bet. Especially in first 3-4 tours. Pick: OVER 151.5 @ 1.87
Size: $750 (medium-high confidence)
Bookie: 10Bet.com
Nancy - Chalon Sur Saone
Both teams showed great performance in friendlies matches Nancy record was 9-2, while Chalon 9-1. Both teams have very close h-2-h last statistics, Nancy won 3 games 79-78, 98-72 and 78-69, while Chalon managed to win at home 93-75. This season Chalon signed some really good players and till now they showed good results.
2 reasons why I hold this bet risky is that Nancy could be too much motivated in front of their supporters and Chalon 1 point win against Besancon at home in Day 1. But from other side they had 10 points advantage before last quarter, which they lost 9-18.
This line should be 5-6 points less than it is set. So let's take it with medium-low stake.
Pick: Chalon +12 @ 1.80
Size: $250 (medium-low confidence)
Bookie: Bet365.com
Orleans - Reims
Here we have good physical team with good balanced team play which is playing at home their first ever LNB game. And we have another team which is not ready for this season and their leader was declined to play by club president because "of a behavior incompatible with its statute of professional player and an attitude prejudicial with the image of the club". In their first game they lost 50-74 to ASVEL, while Orleans away from home lost to ASVEL only 2 points (but they had -9 defficite 1 minute remaining).
Also for this game Thomas Andrieux is highly doubtful for Reims, but he did not play in first match so it's hard to say how his absence will affect on team performance. At this momemnt Reims head coach can count only on 6 players who knows what to on the court. Because when team is losing 24 points at home without any chance to win coach should allow bench warmers to gain experience but in game with ASVEL 6 players played 91% of all game time. So I expect 2 outcomes of this game. Olrean win without beating handicap (as it happens in France often especially when low-class teams meets each other), or they trash their opponent in their first LNB game and huge home crowd which needs blood. Let's see, I prefer to take more risk by lowering bet size in such all-or-nothing situations. Bet365.com is one of favorite bookies because they allow to sell spread points and I will use this option for this pick. Pick: Orleans (-14) @ 2.45
Size: $125 (low confidence)
Bookie: Bet365.com Racing Paris - Strasbourg IG
What could be said for this match. PSG is long time project which should give results in 2-3 years while Strasbourg rely on their budget and wants to get champions rings right now. Sure it's too early to speak about but seems that Cooper injury for Strasbourg break all their plans, team is forced to reconstruct their game and find a way how to play without their leader. That's why I don't trust Strasbourg at this moment, but it's risky to lay them because their depth is better than some starting fives in LNB. The only pick I like in this match is under 146.5. During preparations matches Racing Paris average match total was only 125 points, and that's their game style: very tough defense and low tempo control. These are the keys for success for this team. Their game plan is easy: limit opponent down to 60-65 points in offense and score about 68-75 points in offense. In their first season game their lost 73-81 and a reason of that loss was named bad defence, especially in 3rd quarter when they allowed 29 points. Without this quarter they allowed only 52 points in 3 quarters (17.3 pts per quarter). So seems that this team really know how to play in defence and control tempo (only 58 shots were made by Clermoint). But in offense they still can't score a lot points. This game was first when they managed to score 73 points this season. So for me this team normal numbers are 69-72 points in offense, and 65-68 in defence. Strasbourg team is difficult to analyze because their were 9-1 in preseason when they beat strong ASVEL, Nancy, Le Mans and some others teams. But at the start of the season they lost their main power Cooper, and for this game Darrigand Gauthier another starter is under big questions. Such kind of problems could be case for really difficult times for Strasbourg in Paris, especially in offense where they still can't find a leader and especially it will be hard to find it against tough Racing Paris defence. I expect this game to be 135-142 points game, so under looks good for me. But I have to say that this pick is quite risky because one 45-46 points quarter could kill our hopes. But anyway it's worth to try. Pick: UNDER 146.5 @ 1.90
Size: $250 (medium-low confidence)
Bookie: 10Bet.com |
Free Picks
