VS

69 - 81

Pick: CSKA -6 @ 1.71 Bet365.com

 VS

DKV Joventud - Pananthinaikos

Predicted score:

74-81

Pick: Panathinaikos (-2) @ 1.70 at BET365.com

Playoff Fighters

Under this category I want to list team which will fight for playoff positions. If you account at Betfair you can earn easy money by backing these teams today and laying them after first group stage with much lower odds than now.

Benetton Treviso @ 23.00
Entering the new season with a revamped roster, Euroleague Basketball giant and perennial Final Four challenger Benetton Treviso plans to stand tall again with the continent's best teams. After missing last season's Quarterfinal Playoffs in a tiebreak, then winning the Italian League title in its first season under head coach David Blatt, Benetton has seen extensive roster transition over the summer while developing, as always, a wealth of young talent.

Tournament chances: Benetton is used to build new teams during a season and David Blatt is a specialist in this business. And I am pretty sure that he will build another Benetton version this season, maybe this team will be a bit unpredictable on first group stage but their home mentality and experience will save them. And on the second group stage they will play at their best and I am pretty sure that they will be in a fight for playoff spot this winter. And if they will be able to reach quarterfinals stage they mission for this season in Europe will be accomplished.

Maccabi Tel-Aviv  @ 10.00
The faces may be new, but the expectations are high as ever. After three straight appearances in the Euroleague final, including back-to-back titles in 2004 and 2005, Maccabi Tel Aviv has undergone some major changes. But that doesn't mean that the Israeli champs aspire to anything less than reaching yet another Final Four. New head coach Neven Spahija has taken over the bench, while point guard Will Bynum, swingman Rodney Buford, rising star Simas Jasaitis and promising Lior Eliyahu have joined the lineup

Tournament chances: I respect Maccabi as a club with great infrastructure but unfortunately I can't see them in Athens Final Four this year, but with their traditions, experience and home "Nokia" arena they will be able to fight with any opponent and expect them to appear in playoff spot fighters list this year. But probably not more because it would be really tough task to build new team in one year. Euroleague playoffs would be great result for this Maccabi version.

Efes Pilsen, one of the Euroleague's most consistent teams all decade, will try to use the momentum of several fine seasons to go further than ever in 2006-07. Finishing just one step short of the Final Four over several years is a source of extra motivation for Efes and good reason for its opponents to beware. Efes always competes with the best, and 2006-07 should be no different, especially since this traditionally defensive team now has super scoring punch. To its well-established core of competitors, Efes went out and added an explosive backcourt that includes the top two scorers in continental competitions last season, guards Drew Nicholas and Horace Jenkins.

Prokom Trefl  @ 151.00
Prokom Trefl Sopot, returning to the Euroleague for the third consecutive year as Polish League champion, aims to stake its claim as a continental challenger in 2006-07. Prokom has built arguably its strongest squad yet for the new season. The team retained last year's core players and coach Eugeniusz Kijewski added some top-notch free agents, which should be enough to see Prokom try for another appearance in the Top 16 and perhaps become the first Polish team to reach the Quarterfinal Playoffs.

Tournament chances: I really like Prokom's activity on transfer market this year, they built really competetive team this year and I see them as one of the most biggest suprise providers this year in Euroleague. It should not be difficult for them to promote to the Top16 stage and there a lot will depend on the draw but I feel that this team is capable to get what they dream for 3 years - playoff spot. This their season goal and they will be concetrated on this goal. Prokom have advantage over their opponents because they don't have close competition in national league so leaders will take rest.

Dynamo Moscow @ 26.00
After helping to make last season the single greatest in Russian basketball history, Dynamo Moscow debuts in the Euroleague for 2006-07 full of the promise of great things. Basketball fever in the Russian capital is hotter than ever after Dynamo won the ULEB Cup last season, earning its right to play in the Euroleague, whose 2005-06 champion was CSKA Moscow. While those double European titles were a first for Russia, Dynamo arriving to play in a great new arena, the Krylatskoe Sports Palace, could make this Euroleague season in Moscow even more fascinating. Among its lofty goals, Dynamo no doubt wants to challenge CSKA for local prominence.

Tournament chances: This team has been built for Euroleague and finally they will play here. Team has a solid roster and good coach but unfortunately such players like Domani, Bykov, Trushkin, Ivanon and Monya don't have winning mentality yet and I doubt that they will obtain it during one season. Starting five is really one of stongest in Euroleague but after firing Chatman I can't see this team in Athens and probably their best result this year would be a plaoy-offs.

Title Contenders

Panathinaikos @ 2.50
One of modern European basketball's signature clubs, Panathinaikos, enters the 2006-07 season with the highest goal possible. With the Final Four coming to its home arena in Athens, Panathinaikos aims not only to reach that showcase event, but to win its fourth continental crown since 1996. To that end, the Greens have strengthened what was an already super-deep roster by hiring established pros at all five positions: playmaker Sani Becirovic, shooter Tony Delk, small forward Ramunas Siskauskas, power forward Dimos Dikoudis and center Robertas Javtokas.

Tournament chances: Hmm.. it's not only Final Four material - it's an Euroleague Final Material and their goal is to win Euroleague. But odds at 2.50 are better not touch because they have too much strong opponents like CSKA, Tau Ceramica, Barcelona and few others who can stop their Euroleague campaign. Odds at 2.50 would stay the same if they would reach Athens Final Four but during a season it's better to lay them at this odds.

Barcelona  @ 9.00
As one of modern European basketball's most competitive clubs, Winterthur FC Barcelona rarely makes any moves that do not point clearly toward winning titles. The aspirations for 2006-07 will be no different for Barcelona, which followed a Final Four appearance last season by recharging its roster. To an existing list of shining stars from several countries, Barcelona added four marquee newcomers at two positions. The new pair of point guards will be prime-timer Jaka Lakovic and rising-star Roko-Leni Ukic, while a new center tandem features long Fran Vazquez and strong Mario Kasun.

Tournament chances:  Barcelona have very deep and expensive roster, absolutely clear that odds on them will drop down after first group stage because they have quite easy group but as for me we should lay this team starting from the quarterfinals because Barcelona this year don't have "head". Lakovic and Ukic are not those players who can play at their best when team needs, Lakovic already showed this in PAO last season and in Japan this year, while Ukic is still too young to take a lead over the team in crucial matches. So odds over 9.00 are worth to back but don't forget to lay Barcelona at lower odds later in the season. I think that if they would be succesfull they will be able to reach Athens Final Four but I can't see them winning Euroleague crown this year.

Olympiakos BC @ 6.00
A season after coming closer than anyone expected to the Final Four, the prospect of playing for a Euroleague title at home in Athens next spring has lit a fire of ambition under Olympiacos. The Reds spared no effort this offseason in building a team that can challenge for the 2007 Final Four. First, the Reds lured the competition's most successful coach of late, Pini Gershon, to a bench that now boasts some of the top free agents available over the summer.

Tournament chances:  I can't see Gershon team with such players without playoffs, but a lot will depend about home court advantage in those playoff series. I am pretty sure that Olympiacos will get strong opponent in playoff and if they will have home advantage they will have chance to promote for Final Four, and there everything is possible. But odds are not recommended to take because this team is full of surprises and as for me odds on their chances to win Euroleague should be about 9-12 especially after Macijauskas injury.

Efes Pilsen  @ 34.00
Efes Pilsen, one of the Euroleague's most consistent teams all decade, will try to use the momentum of several fine seasons to go further than ever in 2006-07. Finishing just one step short of the Final Four over several years is a source of extra motivation for Efes and good reason for its opponents to beware. Efes always competes with the best, and 2006-07 should be no different, especially since this traditionally defensive team now has super scoring punch. To its well-established core of competitors, Efes went out and added an explosive backcourt that includes the top two scorers in continental competitions last season, guards Drew Nicholas and Horace Jenkins.

Tournament chances:  Odds at 34.00  are totally wrong because this team is built for one goal to reach Final Four. They were not able to reach it in last 2 season but this season they have really good roster with experienced players and experienced coach together with great home court where they can beat any team. I see this team in playoff race and there they will have a good chance to promote to the Athens if the will get Olympiacos, Barcelona or Unicaja in quartefinals.

Unicaja  @ 21.00
Hopes to stake its place among the Euroleague’s elite are higher than ever for Unicaja at the start of the 2006-07 season. After a dominant regular season last year, Unicaja missed the Quarterfinal Playoffs by a single victory, but its first Spanish League crown soon eased that disappointment. Now, Unicaja is back to take care of some unfinished Euroleague business – nothing less than earning a spot in the Final Four!

Tournament chances:  Unicaja have easy group on first stage and they will get a good chance to find a way how to play without Garbajosa who joined Toronto Raptors this summer. At this moment Unicaja don't impress anyone but they traditionally starts slow and Marcus Brown absence is one of the main reasons. With his return Unicaja absolutely sure will be back on track and I think they will earn playoff spot with experience and self-confidence they gained last season. And I would not be surprised to see them in Athens because Unicaja is capable to win against any team in Euroleague including TAU, CSKA and Panathinaikos with whom they will probably meet in quarterfinals. Odds at 21.00 and higher are worth to try as for me because odds on this team will drop soon.

TAU Ceramica  @ 9.00
If any club has gone from being a virtual unknown to a member of Europe's elite in almost no time at all, that club is Tau Ceramica. Having reached the Final Four the last two seasons, Tau arrives for 2006-07 as one of the top candidates to get there again. Tau brings back several stars, chief among them All-Euroleague First Team choice Luis Scola, one of the most accomplished power forwards in the world. Scola has plenty of talented teammates returning with him, including assist king and All-Euroleague Second Team selection Pablo Prigioni, long-distance bomber Serkan Erdogan.

Tournament chances:  Tau is another long-term bet I like the most in Euroleague this year. They have Final Four experience, they have self-confidence and finally they have very good roster which is capable to win this league. In my eyes their odds on winning euroleague should not be higher than 5.00 and I am pretty sure that this odds over 9.00 will drop down after the first stage.

CSKA Moscow @  5.25
There is one Euroleague team that all others will be shooting to stop this season, and CSKA Moscow wouldn't have it any other way. After years of fighting to get to the top, one thing is sure: the reigning Euroleague champions plan to stay there. Although CSKA brings back a majority of the players from last year's title run, the team figures to be even stronger with the return from injury of 2005 All-Euroleague center David Andersen, who missed much of last season. Coach Ettore Messina will again rely on All-Euroleague first-teamer and Final Four MVP Theo Papaloukas and sharpshooter Trajan Langdon, an All-Euroleague second-team choice. That trio plus Final Four heroes J.R. Holden, David Vanterpool, Matjaz Smodis and Aleksey Savrasenko make up a core lineup of seasoned professionals that is hard to match.

Tournament chances:  Hmm.. is there anyone who don't see CSKA in playoffs? As for me this team is really one of the best teams in Europe (if not the best) and first seiruos difficulties they will see only in a playoffs if they will meet TAU or Panathinaikos there. Odds on CSKA to win Euroleague should be set about 3-4 but not higher. This team is Final Four material and they were there 4 years in a raw, and seems to be there 5th time in a row if nothing special will happen.

Euroleague starts tomorrow and I decided to review each team chances in this tournament and find some value bets for those punters who like long-term bets. I also like to bet buy value bets at high odds on BetFair.com and sell them when odds drop down and get profit in any case.

In this article I review outsiders and Top16 material teams which don't have chances to reach Euroleague playoff stage according to my estimations.

P.S. Odds service has been provided by GameBookers and team previews were taken from Euroleague official web site.

NO CHANCErs

No Chancer - it's a team which don't have chance (even theoretical) to promote from the group without talking about their chances to win Euroleague.

RheinEnergie Koln @ 301.00
Fans in Cologne, Germany will enjoy some of the best shows that basketball has to offer in 2006-07, and if Euroleague newcomer RheinEnergie has its way, the fun will continue well into next spring. After hosting the top teams from Europe and America as part of the NBA Europe Live preseason tournament, the Euroleague regular season will give Cologne its first taste of the continent's top competition. RheinEnergie won its Euroleague place by becoming German League champion last spring, and now enjoys the opportunity to lift its country even higher in the eyes of the continent's basketball fans.

Tourmanent chances: I think that this team is out of competition only due the too much strong group on a first stage. Dynamo, Olympiacos, Climamio, Prokom and Tau - it's too much for Koln.. Sure they will fight especially at home but opponents will be really motivated with them because they can't allow lose points in such strong group. If they would play in group B they would have a chance to reach next round but in this group it would be really very-very tough.

Le Mans @ 151.00
Even in a city known for its 24-hour auto race, basketball has always held its place of pride, and now Le Mans has a team that to make its fans as proud as ever. There is no time like the present for Le Mans, which won both the French League and cup titles in a historical 2005-06 season. Making it to the Euroleague means sustaining a remarkable competitive tradition that began more than 60 years ago with a war-era women's team. Le Mans has managed to keep most of its roster while adding veteran bomber Nebojsa Bogavac and athletic forward Frederic Adjiwanou, as well as bringing back one of its former stars, Sandro Nicevic, a reliable center who might prove to be among Europe's best.

Tourmanent chances: The same problem as for Koln, too difficult group to have any chances to promote there and looking to their start of the season in LNB seems that it would be really difficult for them to gain at least 3-4 wins record. I hold Koln chances to promote even higher than Le Mans chances.

Pau-Orthez @ 151.00
Elan Bearnais Pau-Orthez has made its first roster change of the season by inking point guard Aaron Miles for the remainder of the season. Miles (186, 23) replaces John Gilchrist, who arrived to Pau this summer but was cut after the team started its French League campaign with a 1-4 record. Miles arrives from the Fort Worth Flyers, where he averaged 10.1 points, 2.9 rebounds and 6.6 assists in 27 NBDL games last season, which he started playing for the Golden State Warriors of the NBA. Miles finished his college career at the University of Kansas (NCAA) in the 2004-05 season, where he became a fan favourite player for his court vision and ballhandling. He averaged 9.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 1.7 steals in 30 NCAA games in his senior year and helped Kansas to reach the NCAA Tournament final in 2003. Pau is searching the market to find a big man to complete its roster.

Tourmanent chances: Pau-Orthez is aone more victim of the draw. If you want to qualify to next stage you must win at least 2-3 games away and to protect your home field as much as you can. Both tasks would be really difficult to complete for french team, because all teams in group C are really home teams CSKA, Barcelona, Benneton, Fenerbahce Ulker, Zalgiris, Aris and Napoli. And more of that all these teams can win in Pau and I doubt that Pau-Orthez will be put as favorite by bookies in any of first league games.

TOP 16 MATERIAL

Top 16 material it's a group of teams who can reach Top16 stage but I can't see them promoting to the playoffs.

Partizan Belgrad @  301.00
Partizan, perennial champion in the basketball hotbed of Serbia, returns to the Euroleague for the 2006-07 season ready to reap the rewards of its commitment to young players in recent years. Over the past two seasons, Partizan has thrown its youngsters into the fire against the giants of the Euroleague. Now players like sharpshooter Uros Tripkovic, forward Luka Bogdanovic and big men Kosta Perovic and Nikola Pekovic are ready to take their club to new heights.

Tourmanent chances: They were lucky to get group with 2 Adriatic league teams where Partizan can earn their place in Top16, also they can get some points at home with Joventud, Roma and maybe Maccabi which is not that Maccabi that we remember. All in their hands and they are really Top16 material but not more because as last season shows adriatic basket level is still far away from Spain, Russia and Italy. Partizan should learn how to win away games in Europe and this season would be a first lesson for them.

Cibona VIP @ 201.00
If history is any indication, Cibona will be one Euroleague team that all the others must watch out for in 2006-07. The Croatian champs were among the most interesting teams to follow last season. Despite being the last qualifier to the Top 16, Cibona won its first three games games in that phase, and only missed the Quarterfinal Playoffs in a tiebreaker. Over the summer, Cibona held onto some key players, inked several experienced free agents, and brought back others who used to wear its jersey. Point guard Davor Kus, defensive ace Marin Rozic, swingman Chris Warren, veteran Jurica Zuza and promising big men Luksa Andric and Alen Trepalovac are back.

Tourmanent chances: The same Top16 material as Partizan but I hold Cibona chances to qualify to next round lower than Partizan chances because Partizan is better while odds on Cibona are lower only due their last season surprises. This year they will have some kind of drop-down and I don't see them in playoff race, and maybe not even in the Top16.

Union Olimpija @ 301.00
Union Olimpija will turn back the clock and look to the future simultaneously in 2006-07 as a couple old friends return to help guide some exciting young prospects to success. Olimpija brought back former head coach Tomo Mahoric to Ljubljana and signed up still-explosive forward Marko Milic, a hero among Olimpija fans, to lead on the court. Other marquee additions include playmaker Ender Arslan, scorer Sandi Cebular, talented big men Miha Zupan and Christian Maraker, and promising guard Domen Lorbek.

Tourmanent chances: Olimpija have 2 adriatic league teams in their group: Cibona and Partizan, and will be able to steal some points from Joventud and Roma at home, this will give them a chance to qualify for the next stage but this would be a great result for them. There is no sense to talk about winning Euroleague because it's impossible to win Euroleague with 23-24 y.o. players without european cups experience and starting five is much lower than Euroleague playoff level requires. And  I would not be surprised if they would leave Euroleague after 1st group stage, because in my eyes they are weaker than Partizan and Cibona.

Climamio Bologna  @  26.00
One of the most consistently competitive of European clubs, Climamio Bologna will rely on great tradition to face the challenge of roster transition in 2006-07. Climamio has undergone extensive changes, but in the process worked to keep two if the sport’s brightest stars at home. Shooting star Marco Belinelli is ready to step up as the team leader at just 20 years old, while versatile Stefano Mancinelli now has the chance to show all his talent. Rodolfo Rombaldoni and Thomas Ress also return to the team, while Climamio landed marquee free agents at each and every position, too.

Tourmanent chances: Good home team with great traditions but I doubt that this team will find stability this year, they will reach Top16 for sure but it would be really tough to compete with more organised teams with longer bench.

Roma @ 34.00
The return of Italy's capital to the orbit of great basketball cities in the Euroleague is among the biggest news of the 2006-07 season. The fact that Lottomatica Roma brings with it a signature Euroleague player of the decade, Dejan Bodiroga, only adds to the satisfaction. It can safely be said that whatever team Bodiroga plays for will compete. The new Roma head coach, Jasmin Repesa, will make doubly sure of that. Roma has added carefully to a roster that boasts prime-time players and experience.

Tourmanent chances: This team should be able to qualify to the Top16 because they are really capable to win in Adriatic zone and they can defend their home arena well against all group B teams (maybe Pananthinaikos would be an exclusion but all other games looks as winnable). Unfortunately talking about their chances to reach playoff stage I will be quite critic because Roma players don't have Euroleague experience and for them would be diffucult to play on 2 fronts in LegaBasket and here. Their coach Repesa knows how to deal with this problem because he have large Euroleague experience with Climamio but that would not be enough.

Joventud Badalona  @ 26.00
Proud former continental champion DKV Joventut of Spain continues its return to prominence in 2006-07 by rejoining Europe's top competition for the first time in more than a decade. After winning the FIBA Europe Cup title last season, Joventut chose to keep most of its roster intact. Legendary head coach Aito Garcia is back along with the team superstar, Rudy Fernandez, who helped Spain to win the World Championships this summer.

Tourmanent chances: Joventud is one of the best home teams in Spain league and last season FIBA cup winner but unfortunately without experience in Euroleague. Joventud roster is also is a bit lower level than Euroleague playoff level needs. I expect them easily to promote from the group by defending their homecourt against adriatic trio and earning some victories away, but at Top16 level they will be outsiders in any group, maybe dangerous outsiders but that's still not enough to count on playoffs.

Fenerbahce Ulker  @ 26.00
Even though the 2006-07 season marks its debut in the Euroleague, Fenerbahce Ulker Sport is far from a rookie where it matters most, on the court. The dean of Turkish coaches, Aydin Ors, and a group of veterans give Fenerbahce fans every reason to expect competitiveness from the first tipoff. Drawn in part from Ulker teams that never missed a Top 16 in the Euroleague, the new Fenerbahce claims more than just years of experience on a roster with eight players 28 or older. There is sharpshooter Ibrahim Kutluay, the only Turkish player to have ever won a Euroleague crown.

Tourmanent chances: This team is experienced and quite solid looking at their roster but unfortunately experience and age have another factor - injuries risk. If this team will be injured troubled they will have seriuos problems with qualifying into the Top16 round because group C is really one of most unpredictable talking about 5-6th place contenders but I'm absolutely sure that they are Top16 material but they should prove this in group C. I can't see them in playoff race because Turkish teams usually fails in most important games and this one have high injury-risk factor.

Zalgiris @ 67.00
Northern Europe's most traditional power, Zalgiris Kaunas, holds the hopes of basketball-mad Lithuania in its hands heading into the 2006-07 Euroleague. To be practical, Zalgiris wants to reach the Top 16 again and win games after stalling at that stage without a victory in each of the last two seasons. A renovated roster heavy on homegrown youngsters will try to meet that challenge. Those young talents will have a veteran leader in center Tanoka Beard, still a formidable inside force at age 35.

Tourmanent chances: Lithuanian team proved last year that they are worth to be called Top16 material and I see them to be succesfull in first group stage, especially at home where they have not lost in first group stage last year, and also they need wins against Napoli, Ulker and Pau-Orthez in away matches. Roster is quite solid and experienced to reach this goal. But I am not optimistic about their chances to reach playoffs with coach they have at this moment. Ex-player as main coach is not a good solution for team which wants to reach playoff stage. Probably the last season scenario with good performance in first stage and 0-6 appereance in Top16 stage (maybe they will get their first wins on this stage this year) could repeat again.

Aris TT Bank @ 151.00
Excitement fills the air in Greece's second largest city as a classic among continental basketball clubs, Aris TT Bank of Thessaloniki, returns to Europe's top competition this season for the first time in more than a decade. Aris, which reached three straight continental Final Fours between 1988 and 1990, knows what it takes to survive at the highest levels and has built its roster accordingly. Aris inked a pair of veteran Euroleague playmakers in Spyros Panteliadis and Giorgos Kalaitzis, a couple of sharpshooters in Alex Scales and Simonas Serapinas, and a new frontline featuring Giannis Giannoulis, Jeremiah Massey, Kevin Fletcher and Savas Eliadis.

Tourmanent chances: Aris according to my estimations will fight for 5th spot with Zalgiris, Ulker and Napoli in a first stage. But don't forget that aris have on the best home courts in Europe and this factor should help them to reach Top16 stage, but there they will meet seriuos problems because top teams knows how to win games in such conditions but Aris is not yet capable to win crucial games away from home. And this will kill their playoff hopes and maybe even Top16 stage hopes... All happens...

Eldo Basket Napoli @ 67.00
One of the big surprises in European basketball last season was Eldo Basket Napoli, which won the Italian Cup and reached the Italian League semifinals to earn its way into the 2006-07 Euroleague. The club now has plenty ambition to show what it can do on an international stage. To that end, Napoli has kept much of its successful roster intact while making some valuable additions, such as playmaker Tierre Brown and steals specialist Jeff Trepagnier, who returns to the club. Also coming back are two players Napoli loaned away last season, big guard Matteo Malaventura, who could play a major role this year, and small forward Simone Flamini. They will join forces with top returnees like three-point specialist Jay Larranaga, athletic forward Michel Morandais, playmaker Valerio Spinelli, rebounding ace Mason Rocca or big man Ansu Sesay. Experienced head coach Pierluigi Bucchi will be back on the bench, where he made sure his team could compete with the best last season. Things should be no different in Napoli's Euroleague debut.

Tourmanent chances: Good team and probably good Top16 material but they will have tough life in Euroleague this year mostly because they are not really better than any Group C team and they would not have any easy games on this stage. I would rate their chances higher if they would save their last season roster which earned this Euroleague spot but I doubt they will be able to repeat the same success this year. Napoli is worth to be called Top16 material but they could stay not qualified for next stage easily without talking about chances to reach Euroleague playoff stage.