VS  

Dynamo Moscow - Climamio Bologna

predicted score:

74 - 78

Pick: Climamio +9.5 @ 1.74 Bet365.com

Dynamo is not optimal at this moment, they don't show great defense and allowing about 74-76 points. Short unexperienced bench is a reason of poor offense which struggles sometimes and rarely score 80+ points.  Also Dynamo have Raicevic injured and he will not be available for this game, all other players are available but as I already wrote in my last week preview I don't think that Dymano bench quality is ready for Euroleague matches.

Climamio is also not in top form yet but this team looks better at this moment, they are gaining their form they had good game with Napoli, they lost in close match to Vidi-Vichi in derby. Belinelli is ready for this game and this will help italian team in offense. In general italian style is not comfortable for russian clubs because they are not used to play hard in defense and I expect Climamio to have a lot of open shots from 4-6 metres which they usually hit having such snipers as Mancinelli, Belinneli and Bluthental. Edney is also capable to show 20+ points performance in any game.

I expect Climamio to score about 74-78 points today and if Dynamo bench would not support their starting five Climamio will have good chance to steal a win. And I expect much closer game than betting line is set for this game.

 VS

Maccabi  - Roma

predicted score:

79-78

Pick: Roma >75.5 @ 1.85 SportingBet.com

Maccabi won against Hapoel Ierusalim in local championship and that was a sign of form gaining. But Euroleague level is much higher and without defense Maccabi will have really tough life here, Spahija knows hot to set defensive plays but seems that players he have are not used to play in defence and simply don't want to do this. They allowed 70+ points in all their games this year and I expect Roma to use this factor into their favor today.

Roma is not superb in offense. They are only 71.0 points in offense this year but I personally hold them a team which can score 75 points against any opponent. They have balanced roster with good shooting quards, forwards and centers. They fail to score 75 points only if they have one scoreless quarter when they score 8-10 points and this is only one reason why they fail to score 78-80 points in most of their games. Maccabi defence is not so tough to beat and game tempo will help Roma to score at least 75 points today and if they will be able to score more than 79 points they will have chances to win this game because they different from Maccabi knows what does defence means and don't forget that away win is something they need after losing to Olimpija last week.

 VS

Zalgiris - F.C.Barcelona

predicted score:

77-84

Pick: Barcelona (-1) @1.71 Bet365.com

Pick: Over 153 Bet365.com

I don't to spend my time to write about Zalgiris offense today (please read my last Euroleague picks to know more) but want to inform that Machado is ready for this game and seems that he is in good form after injury. He is not so active on penetration to basket but very dangerous at 3-point line. Add to him Penney, Popovic and you will get most dangerous shooting quards line in whole Euroleague. And with their killing 3 pointers Zalgiris still don't know how to score less than 74 points, while their average scoring ability is about 85 points. But defence... in their last game with Napoli italians had a lot of open shots and if they will score those easy points they will score more than 75 points for sure..

Barcelona looks better during last week especially in offense, seems that they have found their offense while they score 82.6 points in last 6 matches. In defence they allow about 67-74 points but I can't say that Barcelona is great in defense at this moment because with offensive teams they allow more than 75 points (99 points from Tau Ceramica, 94 from Estudiantes, 77 from Murcia).

I expect Barcelona defence to show up today and Zalgiris will have first seriuos trouble in offense, and I am not sure they will score 80 points today.. but 73-74 is something they must score in anyway and maybe more... But in defence Zalgiris will struggle against unique Barcelona offense. I expect Barcelona to use this weakness in Zalgiris... Navarro always show himself well in Kaunas and I expect Barcelona to score more than 82 points today, and because of their better defense they will win this game. And one more important factor I see here it's a coach... Unfortunately for lithuanians their coach is not yet ready for big games against such team as Barcelona... Dusko Ivanovic is better coach and knows how to change his team during a game... Better defense, better players, better bench, more experienced coach, and only home factor and good 3-point shooting is all that plays for Zalgiris. That's why I expect hard Barcelona win in today's match.

Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards

From Washington Post:

"The Wizards aren't ready to panic over the 1-2 start, but forward Caron Butler said the team understands the importance of creating some momentum. This week would be a good time because the Wizards will play Eastern Conference opponents Indiana, Milwaukee and New Jersey at Verizon Center.

"We have to bring it right here and send a message about home court," said Butler, who is shooting 51.3 percent from the field. "It's early and it's a long season but we don't want to keep letting these close games get away from us. We learned last year how critical some of these games can be as the playoffs get close."

Betting analysis:
Indiana have 3-1 ATS record and 2-0 away ATS Record this year, but look with whom they played NY, New Orlean, Charlotte and Philadelphia. All these teams are not so strong as home placed Wizards. Pacers still have to improve their defense and find good rotation. Yesterday they had public TV game with Sixers and they won it quite confidently and that is a reason why today they will be more relaxed and not so motivated about winning.

Wizards have some kind of inside problems (I'm talking about Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood fight in locker room) but in general according to Washington Post team have a lot of unused energy inside and they are really motivated to win at home. Last year Wizards won 2 games against Indiana (at home and away) and both wins were with 5+ points advantage. And I expect Wizards to be strong today and the only question is about covering HC. I will buy some points to feel myself more comfortable about my pick.

Free NBA Pick #1: Washigton Wizards (-5) @ 1.90

NY Knicks at Denver Nuggets
Denver should be really motivated today after 0-2 start, Nuggets knows how to play against Knicks and 3-1 ATS record in last 4 matches tells a lot about this. Bookies set handicap at 10 points mark and this hc is a bit risky to play because Denver is not in optimal condition yet but looking at NY Knicks defense they should score 100+ points today, while Knicks are still in search of their game and Francis loss will give more questions for Knicks coach. How to play against deep Nuggets.

I expect easy game for Denver but result will be done in first half and first half handicap will be my second pick for today.

Free NBA Pick #2: 1st Half Line Nuggets (-6.0) @ 1.97 Pinnacle

Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs
Both team offensive power working great in the beginning of the season, SA had one bad night at with Cavaliers when they lost 81-88 but I don't expect the same performance from them today against open-style opponent like Suns are. Phoenix allowing 110 points per game and I don't see them closing Spurs today under 100 points. Line is bit affected by half-court risk game, because Phoenix showed some kind of defense in preseason but today when season have started they started to play mainly relying on their offense, unfortunately they are not successfull looking at winning record which is 1-3 only but Suns already showed that they can improve their game in one night and if they shots are falling into basket they can win anyone. That's why I avoid backing Spurs today but will try over 204.5 because both teams have all offensive weapons to score 100+ points today.

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Free NBA Pick #3: OVER 204.5 @ 1.943 Pinnacle

 VS

   Olimpija  vs Pananthinaikos

Predicted score:

65 - 82

Pick: Union Olimpija UNDER 73.5 @ 1.85 SportingBet

Hemofarm - Gran Canaria
Hemofarm is a shooting team and their results depends on their shooting mainly. Recent results shows that this team is in good form and I'm not sure that more experienced Gran Canaria will be able to stop Hemofarm offense, especially playing after hard match with OT with Bilbao in ACB league. Hemofarm will have fresh legs and larger motivation.

Pick: Hemofarm to win @ 1.50 (medium)

Crvena Zvezda - Unics Kazan
Both teams have great offensive power and I don't any of this teams scoring less than 75 points. And someone should win here. So 153 points total line is not right here and I suggest you to try over here.

Pick: over 153 (medium-high)

ALBA Berlin - Lucoil Academic
ALBA did not played this weekend while for bulgarian team this game will 4th in 8 days. Better physical condition and home factor will play for ALBA for sure. So ALBA to cover -5 at Bet365.com looks solid. I expect something like 88-76 here.

Pick: Alba -5 (medium-high)

Real Madrid - PAOK
147.5 total seems too much affected by Real willing to win. Sure they want to win with high margin and to re-establish  their brand in European basketball after shocking loss in last week. But PAOK matches total average is about 158 while Real average is 152.5 points. I expect something like 86-71 for Real today. And over is a good bet as for me.

Pick: Over 147.5 (medium-high)