Dallas at New Jersey

Press clippings:

"Two of the Nets' most eye-opening wins last season were against Dallas and Phoenix, last year's two Western Conference finalists, and New Jersey's next two opponents.

What made them so impressive were the circumstances and the way the Nets won.

The Nets snapped an 11-game losing skid against the Mavericks, jumping out to a 25-point second-quarter lead and going on to an 11-point victory.

Each team has undergone changes. Each team started the season with high hopes. Each got off to slow starts. But the Mavericks and Suns have bounced back. The Nets are hoping they have with two straight wins. But now comes the real test.

The Mavericks and Suns begin the week as the two hottest teams in the NBA. Dallas started 0-4, but the defending West champs haven't lost since and took a 12-game winning streak into Monday's game at Washington. "

"I don't have any problems welcoming a team like Dallas or Phoenix," GM Ed Stefanski said. "Let's see where we are."

"When we go through stretches like this it's discouraging," coach Lawrence Frank said. "Yet for our core guys who have been here, there isn't really a sense of panic. There's got to be a sense of urgency to win, but not a sense of panic."

"Who's Hot? Vince Carter

The Nets guard scorched Philadelphia for 41 points in his last outing and has scored 20 or more in all but two games. He is fifth in the league in scoring with a 27.7 average. ... Jerry Stackhouse was one of the few Mavs who escaped Monday's loss unscathed. He's averaging 16 points and has shot 61.9 percent from the field the last four games.

Who's Not? Jason Terry

The Mavericks guard has averaged 9.2 points and shot 33.3 percent from the field in the last five games. He scored four points and was 1-of-8 from the field in the loss to Washington. ... The Nets don't look to Jason Kidd to score, but they would like a little more. He's been held to nine points or less in four of his last five games. "

 "The good thing about this league is we have a game [today]," Nowitzki said of the matchup against New Jersey. "Hopefully, we can start a new streak."


Betting analysis:

Nets are not impressive in defense this season but in last few games they found their offense and better Vince Carter version. And this factor could be factor to watch in today's game. I am pretty sure that Nets defence could work well today against Mavs' back court where Terry and Harris are not looking like go-to players and the only player who can save Mavs today is Dirk. But he can't score 60 points.

Another point why I like Nets here is Mavs winning streak, public is talking for. They had 12 winning games strike but most of their won games were against under 0.500 teams like Memphis, Toronto and Charlotte.. and 7 of 12 games were earned at home court.. and against poor teams.

Dallas won 9 of last 10 games against NJ but most of those games were against Nets without Carter. Last year Nets were 2-points underdogs and they won home game against Mavs 100-89. Yesterday we had the same situation when Wizards were dogged by 3 points and won. And now Dallas have back to back game against well rested and motivated (for sure they will be motivated) Nets.

So I expect Carter and Co. to win this game and Dallas to lose 2nd game in a row, and to react against Detroit and Denver in home stand.

Expected score: Nets 98 - 95 Dallas

Pick: Nets +3 (medium-low stake)


Golden State at Houston

Super scoring Warriors against low tempo Rockets. This season Rockets played for over 195 only in 3 of 16 games. That's enough for me to bet on under. If that's not enough for you take a look at this numbers:

44 56 49 44
44 53 47 35
41 52 47 43
42 60 46 48

That's quarter totals of their last 4 games. Do you see a tendency here? I see.. 1st, 3rd and 4th quarter are 44.1 pts in average while 2nd quarter is over 50 pts quarter. The same scenario have all chances to repeat: 3 quarters will generate 132.5 while 4th one will be more productive about 55-57 points. As result we will have 185-191 pts game.

Expected score: Rockets 99 - 92 Warriors

Pick: Under 195.5 (medium stake)

Sacramento at Phoenix

Press clippings:

Series history: The two teams split their four meetings last year, but Sacramento has won 15 of the last 24 meetings. The Suns have dominated in Phoenix, beating the Kings in 66 of 88 meetings, and had a string of 24 straight wins snapped in 1999.

Scouting report: Kings — Sacramento has dropped five of its first seven road games and is 1-3 in the second of back-to-back games. Heading into Monday’s home game with Orlando, guard Kevin Martin leads the team in scoring (22.9 points) with Ron Artest adding 17.4 points and 7.6 rebounds a night. Phoenix Shadow Mountain High School graduate Mike Bibby chips in 17.1 points and 5.9 assists and always savors the matchup with Steve Nash. John Salmons, who passed over Phoenix to sign a free agent deal with Sacramento over the summer, had 20 points on 10-for-17 shooting against San Antonio on Saturday.

Suns – Looking for their seventh straight win, the longest since winning 11 in a row last February. After a 1-2 start, they are now 7-2 at home. Leandro Barbosa is averaging a careerhigh 18.3 points and 4.9 assists, taking some of the playmaking load off of Nash.


Betting analysis:

215.5 total is always risky to bet when one team have to score over 110 points and another team could score less than 100 points. But here I definetely see 2  teams which score 100 points easily in open-style games. In 7 of last 8 games both teams scored 100+ points and average total of those 8 games is 227.5 pts.  Maybe this pick will be a nervous one in the end of the game because this game have all chances to end in 213-220 pts range but I think that at this moment Suns are looking like 118-123 points team and Sacramento should score at least 102 points. Handicap is just too big to back Suns and too risky to lay it by playing Sacramento spread.

Expected score: Suns 117 - Sacramento 104

Pick: Over 215.5 (medium stake)


Atlanta at Seattle
In their first game this season teams scored 162 in 3 quarters and offensive basketball prevailed all game long. In Seattle I expect the same style game, and probably Hawks will revenge for overtime loss in first game. Atlanta is a team to watch these days and their record is not showing their real level of play. But still over looks better for me here.  

Expected score: Sonics 104 - 106 Atlanta

Pick: Over 202 (medium stake)

Milwaukee at Phoenix
Both teams are running and shooting team and when they meet each other it is usually an offensive basketball.. At least their 4 last games were over 200 points while their average is 231.5 pts per game:

3/28/06  MIL 132 - PHO 110
3/1/06  PHO 123 - MIL 110
1/26/05  MIL 115 - PHO 121
11/24/04 PHO 111 - MIL 104

Ok Suns are allowing only 92 per game in their last 4, but they played against half court teams like Portland, Houston, NJ. Before that they allowed over 100 points in 8 of 10 games. And today I expect to see M.Redd show in Phoenix. Buck usually accept Phoenix game style and plays their running basketball. I expect that both teams will overscore their totals.

Expected score: Suns 118 - 106 Milwaukee

Free NBA Pick #1: Over 215.5 (medium stake)

Cleveland at Atlanta
Honestly speaking this line is right here and usually avoid betting on such lines but here we have situation when Lebron and his team must react to overtime loss in Cleveland 95-104 in their second home game this year. I have seen that game overview on TV and Cavs were controlling this game until last quarter when they lost concentration and their bad FG % started to play against them. In that game they attacked only 36.3% from the field, 23 of 37 from FT line, but where much better on the boards 47-39 (20 offensive rebounds).

Hawks don't have so deep bench as Cavs have and sooner or later this will play against them today. I expect Lebron to take care of this game and Cavs to win this game by 7-10 points.

Expected score: Hawks 97 - 106 Cavs

Free NBA Pick #2: Cavs (-2)  (medium stake)

Indiana at Seattle
Seattle are on 3 games losing streak but is it worth to take them against Indiana which won 4 of last 6 games? Hmm.. I think that maybe it's worth to try but I think that winner of this game will be decided in offense because both teams usually plays offensive basketball when they meet each other and Bob Hill is worried about his team offense to improve. Indiana are not superb in defence they are allowing 96.9 pts per game, and Seattle should reburn their offense today.

Last year this teams played 8 quarters and 7 of them were 50+ pts quarters. I expect at least 3 such quarters today when Sonics will host Pacers.

Expected score: Sonics 107 - 104 Pacers

Free NBA Pick #3: Over 198  (medium-low stake)

I don't have enough time to make in-deep analysis for my picks so I advice to bet on these picks only if you have the same thoughts. If not just skip it. Honestly speaking current lines for Euroleague are not so wrong as they were in the beginning of the season, but there is still some picks which I like today. 

Olympiacos - Dynamo
Dynamo will have Lazar for this game but his status is still game-time decision, but I expect him to play at least 10-15 minutes today. Unfortunately I can't see Dynamo playing equal game against Olympiacos during all 40 minutes. Maybe this game will be close, but honestly speaking I think that Olympiacos will show their skills today after 2 losses in a row against Efes and Aris. Sure, there is a risk that fatigue is still in Greek legs but that should be a problem today when gym will be full. I expect Olympiacos to win by 12-18 pts today (expected score 89-74)
 
Pick: Olympiacos -9 (medium-high stake)
Pick: Over 156.5 (medium stake)

Other picks I like but still not sure about betting on them:

Zalgiris +6
This game is important for Lithuanians and for their coach. If they will lose today and this Saturday to Rytas in derby some changes will happen in the club. Team was very critized after game with Fenerbahce and they reacted well to that critic but unfortunately class difference was huge in game with CSKA and now it's time to react I think. yes, Aris is great home team and they home court is one of the best in Europe, but Zalgiris is more experienced team here and as for me line should be egual for both sides.

TAU Ceramica (over 79.5) or (-6)
Simply class difference and poor Prokom defence in last matches. I expect smth like 84-71 here for TAU.