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Euroleague Week 13: Thursday Pick of the Day PDF Print E-mail
Written by Alleks   
Thursday, 24 January 2008

Yesterday I was not able to post anything on my site due the technical difficulties with hosting but today all problems were resolved and I am happy to see all you here again. Today I see only one game where I can feel some confidence that line contains mistake and could be valueable for us. Let's try to use this advantage together. Also I am ready to reply to all your questions in comments section until 17-00 CET.

Also since today Betfair is official partner of Betonbasket.com and for those punters who have accounts there I will publish some Betfair trading tips for some matches.

Zalgiris VS Olympiacos

Zalgiris vs. Olympiacos

Сrucial placement battle in Group A takes place in Kaunas, Lithuania, on Thursday when Zalgiris hosts Olympiacos. The two teams both lost last week to slip from a four-way tie for second place in the group and are now tied for fourth with 7-5 records. While the losing team this week will slip to fifth place and could wind up a bottom seed in the Top 16 draw, the winner can still climb as high as second and become a No. 2 seed in the draw, depending upon other results. Zalgiris was red-hot before suffering a 60-88 home smashing at the hands of CSKA Moscow. The Lithuanian champs had reeled off five straight wins with the backcourt of December MVP Marcus Brown and Euroleague assists leader DeJuan Collins leading the way. Meanwhile the Reds, who have battled injuries all season long, won three in a row before getting upset at Prokom Trefl last week in their worst offensive showing of the season. Star guard Arvydas Macijauskas and forward Kostas Vassiliadis will make the tip to Kaunas with the team, but they are still not fully recovered from their injuries and their participation remains a question mark. Center Jake Tsakalidis is still out. This time Zalgiris is also beaten down by injuries. Center Michael Bradley is not expected to play and forward Paulius Jankunas and guard Marko Popvic are questionable due to the flu.

According to latest Zalgiris club news Jankunas feeling better and should be on court today, Bradley is out for sure. Popovic still have problems with health and is quiestionable for today's game. It is uknown if Jurak and Maciulius will be able today because were not able to train this week. With so many roster problems we can expect many missings today on Zalgiris side and without at least 2 players they will have huge problems against very physical Olympiacos roster. Zalgiris don't like to play against physical teams like Olympiacos because they need to control rebound to stay in the game. Today they should be meet problems stopping greek frountcourt with M.Jackson and Bouroussis. Also it's hard to say who will stop Greer and Woods who are very high skilled players and Zalgiris don't good defenders to match up with in defence. Also don't forget about Macijauskas who can return to court today.

All in one I see this game at least with equal chances, and considering than Olympiacos according to some interview is highly interested in winning both games left in Euroleague I rate greeks as favorites to win this game. Also with so many sicked & injured players in Zalgiris they should not be a favorites here. My line is opposite: 2.20-1.60 (at least with these odds I would probably reduce bet size to low/medium-low stakes)

Pick: Olympiacos +2 @ 1.92 5/10 PinnacleSports

Betfair trading pick:

Current price for Olympiacos is around 2.18-2.20 and considering that odds on Oly win have tendency to go down it's good chance to back Olympiacos @ 2.20 and lay it @ 2.12. You will make free risk bet  before the match.

Or you can make more money if you will wait for in-play trading. I am sure that this game would not be easy and I can't see one sided game here with Zalgiris in such conditions. So after 3-4 minutes line wll be 1.90-1.90 and if Oly will take early 5-6 points lead odds on their win will drop down to 1.80-1.85 very fast. So you can back Oly @ 2.18 now for $200 and lay them @ 1.85 during in play trading. In result you will have 0.00 on Zalgiris and $62.70 on Olympiacos. Risk free profit - it's what trading at Betfair offers.

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Comments
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kakazg  - Hy   |2008-01-24 13:57:08
What do you think about over 163 on match Zalgiris vs. Olympiacos
Alleks  - re: Hy   |2008-01-24 14:05:54
kakazg wrote:
What do you think about over 163 on match Zalgiris vs. Olympiacos


Olympiacos over 81 looks better for me. I don't like the way how Zalgiris
attacks in last few games so I think total line is fair one. I
expect Olympiacos to defend under 80 points and 78-85 looks like
probable result.
maskinas  - hi   |2008-01-24 16:54:59
what do you think about collins 11.5 points? and maciulis 11 ? how about other
games today? i see that there's big handicap in Panathinaikos game. what's your
opinion?
Alleks  - re: hi   |2008-01-24 18:01:37
maskinas wrote:
what do you think about collins 11.5 points? and maciulis 11 ? how about
other games today? i see that there's big handicap in Panathinaikos
game. what's your opinion?


Collins over 11.5 is a bet on fair line as for me (no factors for Collins
to become leader of the attack or play more minutes than usual),
Maciulis probably under because after being sick it's very hard to
show best form. But I don't know what happened to him.. just know that he
was ill.

Big handicap in PAO is correct one. PAO will trash them if
they will want to. Under 159.5 looks better there but you never know what
kind of offense PAO will show.. pathetic with 77-80 pts scored or
90-94 pts. Hard game.

Others game have no value in my opinion
maskinas   |2008-01-24 18:22:44
and how about kalnietis 3.5? he's in good shape and he shoud get more minutes
today cauz of popvic is questionable..
yomayo   |2008-01-24 19:54:34
Quote:
So you can back Oly @ 2.18 now for $200 and lay them @ 1.85 during
in play trading. In result you will have 0.00 on Zalgiris and
$62.70 on Olympiacos. Risk free profit - it's what trading at Betfair
offers.


Just don't forget about 5% commission.
GL
hunter  - pro handicapper los angeles   |2008-01-24 22:22:28
olympiacos??? heh... no quality team in road... kaunas tipycaly
home team
paky   |2008-01-24 22:23:05
www.BetonBasket.com,

What is this site's record so far?

Can BetonBasket upload
a summary of its wins and loses?

Thanks alot
kakazg   |2008-01-25 13:15:16
Oh,Alleks!
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