CSKA Moscow vs Efes Pilsen

MATCH PREVIEW

Two of the best teams in Group D are set to face each other in the Russian capital on Wednesday where reigning Euroleague champion CSKA Moscow hosts Turkish powerhouse Efes Pilsen. CSKA is the only unbeaten team in Group D, while Efes is hoping to bounce back from its first Euroleague loss against Panionios On Telecoms last week. CSKA enters this game with two starters, J.R. Holden and Matjaz Smodis, sidelined due to respective injuries. There is some good news for CSKA, as versatile Andrei Vorontsevich is back in action – and had 20 points in a Russian Cup game this weekend. With Holden out for the second consecutive week, Zoran Planinic and Nikos Zisis are set to share the point guard duties. Planinic has the tough mission of playing against Milos Vujanic, who has been unstoppable lately. Meanwhile, Zisis will test his skills against creative playmaker Ender Arslan.

Efes is really deep at both wings, with experienced shooters like Charles Smith, Preston Shumpert and All-Euroleague second team selection Bootsy Thornton. Shumpert and Thornton will have a key matchup against Final Four MVP Trajan Langdon, who played a game-high 36 minutes against Real Madrid last week. Meanwhile, Smith will have the tough mission to guard Euroleague MVP Ramunas Siskauskas, in a key matchup for the outcome of this game. Cenk Akyol may have a key role against Siskauskas due his athleticism and quickness. Meanwhile, forwards Vorontsevich and Viktor Khryapa could be difference-makers with their deep shooting range and power. As usual, CSKA will rely on All-Euroleague big man Terence Morris and former Rising Star award winner Erazem Lorbek as its main references in the paint while Smodis stays sidelined. Morris faces a big challenge against Kerem Gonlum in a matchup of two of the best defensive big men around. Meanwhile, Lorbek and center Aleksey Savrasenko will test their skills against Kaya Peker and recently signed Dwayne Jones. Michalis Kakiouzis will try to use his speed and experience against Khryapa and Morris. These teams face each other for the first time since the 2006 Quarterfinal Playoffs, when CSKA swept Efes on its way to win its first Euroleague title since 1971. Efes looks for its first road win against CSKA since 1999, when Efes downed CSKA 98-105 in double overtime to reach the Euroleague Quarterfinals. When a host of experienced stars like these teams boast take the court, fans can expect nothing but fireworks in a big Group D showdown.

BETTING ANALYSIS

Most sportsbooks hold 145.5-146.5 points total for this match but as for me even this total is above my expectations. Both teams are not superb in offense on Euroleague level and both have very good defense which stops opponents under 70 points. Both CSKA and Efes allows around 66 points in defense and this is the aspect where game could be decided. Both teams are not playing fast and I expect low pace game with a lot of defensive stops. CSKA always feel comfortable in such basketball while Efes can use their weapons in this game accepting CSKA style. Efes weapons are: deeper bench, physical power under rims with Gonlum, Peker, Kakiuozis and D.Jones looks a bit more solid than CSKA front line. Also Efes has very dangerous 3-point shooting team and CSKA defense will be tested by them too but usually shooting teams fails against CSKA defense. CSKA offense is not at the best moment of the season because of Holden injury and Langdon is still searching for his shot and Planinic is more a penetration-guard than shooting-guard. I doubt that CSKA will be able to score 80 points against Efes in this game and I think that they could even stay under 76 points after 40 minutes.

Games between these teams usually are very close and as for me it's time for CSKA to lose by asian handicap. Efes is capable of delivering problems to CSKA if they will be able to score points but unfortunately for me it is a big question. They scored 61 to Partizan defense at home and were on the same scoring range in game with Panionios one week ago.. CSKA defense is much tougher and Efes will need more than just one-on-one situation creating and stealing balls in defense. All this should point into low scoring game with low total according to my expectations this game will under 140 points.

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