Partizan: Partizan has its entire roster available for the game against Real Madrid but Cedomir Vitkovac is set to play with a mask due to a broken nose while Dejan Borovnjak has some physical problems. Nikola Pekovic is second the index ranking standings (26.3) and is also the Euroleague's fourth top scorer (21.5 ppg.).
Lottomatica Roma: Erik Daniels is still injured and will not play against Partizan, while Christian Drejer is once again unlikely to do so because of his ankle injury. Simone Bagnoli is a possibility to return to the lineup. Erazem Lorbek (17.3 ppg., 66.7% 3FG, 6.3 rpg.) is having a career season, while Jon Stefansson (16.5 ppg., 1.5 spg.) is also unstoppable so far.
Public like Partizan after their performance in first 4 weeks. But let's be honest with ourselves. Partizan is still young, unexperienced but talented team (as always). They 2-2 record but they won against injury weakened Barcelona, same unexperienced and short bench having Roanne, lost in the fight to not optimal Panathinaikos and finaly were trashed by Real in Madrid. Also young teams have one bad side, they have up and downs during a season after great matches follows bad matches series. Now I think it's time to play against Partizan.
If these teams would play on neutral ground I think that Roma would be favored by 4-5 points (if not higher). And fair line would be at least 2.40-1.50. Just look into team rosters to understand why I set odds in this way for this virtual match. Today we see 1.65-2.20 line... Reasons? As usual it's Partizan home court and huge fan support.. and that where Partizan advantage over Roma ends.
Now some reasons why Roma should be capable of winning this match.
1) Roma is the top form lastely and their results don't show their real strength
2) Roma lost 3 away matches already in Euroleague, and they must win at least 2 to qualify into Top-16. They have 3 games for this: against Partizan, Brose and Roanne. Why not to win today?
3) Roma simply is a stronger and more experienced team
4) Ok.. Roma is not stable in away matches.. You're right. But if they lose in away matches they do it with 1-6 pts margin (I am not talking about Fenerbahce here because Roma was too tired there after hard match with Benneton)
5) Roma according to my information is very motivated for this road trip Milan (already won there) - Belgrad - Cantu. They have enough time to prepare for this match because they flight to Serbia on Monday.. and it's very good sign if higher class team doing a flight 2-3 days before a match with weaker opponent. It comes from my betting experience and today I want to play on this.
All in one, I think that this line is too public-weighted and I think that smart money should be placed on Roma to win or on their handicap. Fair line taking into account all aspects should be 1.95-1.75 and Roma should a favorite here in my opinion. So let's wait and see who will this game. I recommend you to watch this game on TV because this should be very interesting game.
Expected score: Partizan 76 - 78 Roma
Pick: Roma +4 @ 1.909 4/10 PinnacleSports