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Euroleague Picks: Week 5 (Wednesday) PDF Print E-mail
Written by Alleks   
Wednesday, 21 November 2007

CSKA Moscow VS Zalgiris Kaunas

CSKA Moscow vs Zalgiris Kaunas 

CSKA Moscow: Matjaz Smodis did not play in the Russian League this weekend after missing the Euroleague game against Olympiacos. As such, expect Aleksey Savrasenko and David Andersen to see their playing time extended if Smodis is still sidelined.

Zalgiris: Eurelijus Zukauskas did not fly to Moscow to face CSKA while newcomer Michael Bradley is questionable for that game, too. Marcus Brown regained his crown as the Euroleague's all-time top scorer with a 28-point effort against Olimpija . 

 
This game will 4th for Zalgiris in 6 days. Since last Thursday they played against Olimpija (91-72), Lietuvos Rytas (80-72) and Kalev (91-90). All games were won but tiredness was already seen in the game with Kalev. Also all these games were played in Kaunas where this team always plays very strong and emotionally. In these 6 days they did a flight to Moscow and living there now. Because of these factors I have some serious doubts that Zalgiris will be physically & emotionally ready for this game. Zalgiris still have no team defense and with problems on center position it will be tough for them to compete against CSKA front-court with Andersen, Goree, Savrasenko and Smodis (still questionable, but I would not be surprised to see him playing today). Also Zalgiris usually making many turnovers and against CSKA such attitude could cost too much. CSKA simply will have more shots than Zalgiris and expect CSKA offense to explode today against weak Zalgiris defense. I think that more fair total for CSKA should be set at 87.5 points.

Zalgiris have many offensive weapons this season and they should be capable to score at least 68-70 points today. They scored less than 72 pts only against Montepaschi where they missed many open shots and did 26 turnovers. It always hard to score against CSKA defensive machine but last year Zalgiris scored here 72 points, so why not repeat this again? Statistically Zalgiris should be able to score in the 70-75 points range. And my total for them is 71.5 points.

Today Zalgiris will play for pride but unfortunately it would be extremely hard them to lose with less than 10 pts spread. I expect CSKA offense to dominate over Zalgiris defense today and I hope that CSKA will allow some kind of show element in this match by turning off their defense. I expect 158-164 pts total today but recommend you to be careful with your stakes because we have too small advantage over the bookies line.

Predicted score: CSKA 88 - 73 Zalgiris

Pick: Over 156 @ 1.94 3/10 PinnacleSports
 

Partizan Beograd VS Lottomatica Roma

 Partizan vs Lottomatica Roma

Partizan: Partizan has its entire roster available for the game against Real Madrid but Cedomir Vitkovac is set to play with a mask due to a broken nose while Dejan Borovnjak has some physical problems. Nikola Pekovic is second the index ranking standings (26.3) and is also the Euroleague's fourth top scorer (21.5 ppg.).

Lottomatica Roma: Erik Daniels is still injured and will not play against Partizan, while Christian Drejer is once again unlikely to do so because of his ankle injury. Simone Bagnoli is a possibility  to return to the lineup. Erazem Lorbek (17.3 ppg., 66.7% 3FG, 6.3 rpg.) is having a career season, while Jon Stefansson (16.5 ppg., 1.5 spg.) is also unstoppable so far.

Public like Partizan after their performance in first 4 weeks. But let's be honest with ourselves. Partizan is still young, unexperienced but talented team (as always). They 2-2 record but they won against injury weakened Barcelona, same unexperienced and short bench having Roanne, lost in the fight to not optimal Panathinaikos and finaly were trashed by Real in Madrid. Also young teams have one bad side, they have up and downs during a season after great matches follows bad matches series. Now I think it's time to play against Partizan.

If these teams would play on neutral ground I think that Roma would be favored by 4-5 points (if not higher). And fair line would be at least 2.40-1.50. Just look into team rosters to understand why I set odds in this way for this virtual match. Today we see 1.65-2.20 line... Reasons? As usual it's Partizan home court and huge fan support.. and that where Partizan advantage over Roma ends.

Now some reasons why Roma should be capable of winning this match.
1) Roma is the top form lastely and their results don't show their real strength
2) Roma lost 3 away matches already in Euroleague, and they must win at least 2 to qualify into Top-16. They have 3 games for this: against Partizan, Brose and Roanne. Why not to win today?
3) Roma simply is a stronger and more experienced team
4) Ok.. Roma is not stable in away matches.. You're right. But if they lose in away matches they do it with 1-6 pts margin (I am not talking about Fenerbahce here because Roma was too tired there after hard match with Benneton)
5) Roma according to my information is very motivated for this road trip Milan (already won there) - Belgrad - Cantu. They have enough time to prepare for this match because they flight to Serbia on Monday.. and it's very good sign if higher class team doing a flight 2-3 days before a match with weaker opponent. It comes from my betting experience and today I want to play on this.

All in one, I think that this line is too public-weighted and I think that smart money should be placed on Roma to win or on their handicap. Fair line taking into account all aspects should be  1.95-1.75 and Roma should a favorite here in my opinion. So let's wait and see who will this game. I recommend you to watch this game on TV because this should be very interesting game.

Expected score: Partizan 76 - 78 Roma

Pick: Roma +4 @ 1.909 4/10 PinnacleSports
 
Please login or register to view predictions for these games:
Rytas - Efes Pilsen
Montepaschi - Virtus VidiVici 
 

 

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Comments
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bax  - roma   |2007-11-21 17:20:52
luury   |2007-11-21 17:55:48
But what do you think about CSKA`s J.Holden scoring over 9 points @ 1.85 ??
Alleks  - re:   |2007-11-21 18:37:06
luury wrote:
But what do you think about CSKA`s J.Holden scoring over 9 points @
1.85 ??


difficult pick.. he is not i good form lately.
MARTINI   |2007-11-21 18:52:52
what do you think about Olimpija-Tau?
Oleg  - virtus   |2007-11-21 21:18:06
nice pick, i placed a value-high-mixed-parley-bet with system of 6 bankers and 4
x 2-ways incl. virtus +17,5 at mostar.

good luck to all!
maskinas  - milovic   |2007-11-21 22:01:20
Alleks how do you think can olimpia win against tau at home? and can milic score
over 16?
Alleks   |2007-11-22 01:40:55
bad unlucky day in overall..
reichenberger  - oh no   |2007-11-22 02:58:19
...thats the end my mixed-parley-combo with my bankers lost...what a expensive
day!

tomorrow i will go all in!
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