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Lemans vs AJ Milano
The sole winless team remaining in the competition, Le Mans, hopes to get in the victory column at last when it hosts Group B's next-to-last team, Armani Jeans Milano, on Thursday in France. Le Mans (0-6) already has matched the most defeats to start a Euroleague regular season since the London Towers didn't win any games at all back in 2001-02. With four of its losses so far coming by six or fewer points, Le Mans hasn't been uncompetitive, but a habit of losing fourth quarters has hurt, and last week's 20-point loss at Cibona was a step backwards. Milano (1-5) got its first victory in surprise fashion on the road at Aris TT Bank two weeks ago, and suffered a one-point buzzer-beater loss at home to Maccabi last week. Both teams rely on big men ranked among the Euroleague's best 20 performers until now. Le Mans center Sam Clancy leads his team in scoring at 14.8 points and rebounds at 7.5 per game. Travis Watson of Milano ranks second in the Euroleague with 9.8 rebounds on average. Only swingman Luka Bogdanovic joins Clancy as a double-figure scorer for Le Mans, however, while Milano has Watson and Ansu Sesay on the insde, Danilo Gallinari, Melvin Booker and Dusan Vukcevic on the perimeter - all putting up 10 points or more per game. One reason Le Mans is ranked third-to-last in scoring is across-the-board low percentages whether shooting from long distance, two-pointers or at the foul line. The young Le Mans backcourt of Yannick Bokolo, Antoine Diot, Nicolas Batum and Raviv Limonad - none yet 25 years old and two of them teenagers - will have to help their team get better shots while also dealing with Milano veterans Booker and Vukcevic - 35 and 32 years old, respectively. Watch for Nebojsa Bogavac coming off the bench to help the hosts. Milano has its own teen sensation in Gallinari, so expect this game to be a showcase for the next generation, too. First and foremost, however, it's a clear opportunity for Le Mans to give itself and its home fans an early holiday gift. While Milano is playing on the road, however, it's also a team that has been on the rise in recent weeks and has no plans of stopping that trajectory now. Betting overview Milan have improved their game this month but they still are not in optimal conditions. Their game improved a bit lately but they can't win games in the end. Reasons are clear at least for me. It's impossible to win games when you play only with starting five players. Milano starters are playing 33-38 minutes average per game and they play 2 times per week... Too hard task to stay fresh in the end and win close games. Also they won only 1 of 9 played games so far away from home and as I remember Milan always had problems in away matches... This Sunday Milan have very important game vs Virtus at home and if I would be Milan manager I would concentrate my team on local problems in championship.. because with such short roster it is impossible to play well in Euroleague and Italian championship. I think that Milan coach and team management understand it and they are not motivated for promoting into Top-16 this year in such circumstances.
On other side we have Lemans which lost all 6 games in EL so far but I really like this team and their physical game. I have watched their games and in my opinion they are obviuosly better team than Milan. They have long bench with 9-10 man rotation, they are very athletic and physical, finaly their Euroleague experience is much higher than Milano's. They 3 game homestand with games against Milano, Nancy and Maccabi. If they will win both EL games against Milano and Maccabi I think they can recover their Top-16 promotion chances. Also Lemans is showing good form in domestic league where they won 5 games in a row including wins over strong Roanne and Chalon away from home and home win over Asvel.
I can't say that this line is wrong (it would be wrong if this Leman would be underdog here) but my expectations about Lemans win are higher than bookies line. My estimation on Lemans to win is around 68% so my line would be 1.35-2.87 (handicap for such line should be -6.5 points).. Bookies have 1.65-2.10 line with -3 handicap.. 1.65 also represent value but for my betting strategy it's better to take odds over 1.80.. so I'll take Lemans to cover (-3) with medium stake. Pick: LeMans (-3) @ 1.90 Bet365.com Zalgiris Kaunas - Tau Ceramica
Looks like easy win for TAU at least for must punters it's one of the safest bets today. But I don't see value here. Zalgiris have deep roster to compete against Tau Ceramica and more of that Zalgiris have positive balance in Kaunas. For sure Tau is a higher class team with better players but Zalgiris at home is a real power and today they will be motivated as never before. If they win they will do big step into Top-16 and with huge fan support everything is possible.
Fair chances according to my estimation are 35 to 65 into Tau side but I think that Zalgiris may suprise us today with a win. But my prediction is Tau to win by 3-5 points.
Prediction: Zalgiris 76 - Tau Ceramica 81
Maccabi Elite - Aris
Maccabi as alway is big favorite in Nokia Arena but I am not yet ready to back them. They still need to find balanced roster, many players still can't find their place on the field and also there are some pressure on coach and a team after huge loss in domestic league. Is it another form dropdown or just a bad game? Hard question. Aris already proved that they are dangerous team but will they be able to show their best skills in Israel where Maccabi won 25 of last 26 games? Too much unanswered questions for betting..
My prediction is another Maccabi win but it would not be easy. Something like Maccabi-Efes Pilsen is expected.
Prediction: Maccabi 79 - 72 Aris
Panathinaikos - Real Madrid
BIG GAME. Fair odds. No value. Good match to watch but for betting. It's impossible to find value in such games because bookies knows their business. I don't see any value here in this line and everything will depend from shooting percentage, team morale attitude, defense and coach decisions. All this staff is unpredictable and that's why I avoid betting on such matches. It's better to wait better odds for expected winner in live betting. My favorite to win this one is PAO because of their form, home court and winning mentality. But I see value only in odds over 1.50 on Pao to win.
Prediction: Panathinaikos 76 - 68 Real Madrid
Union Olimpija - Prokom Trefl Sopot
Very important game for both teams and it's very hard to predict outcome of this match. I think that Prokom under new coach can suprise. They already showed how they can play when they won against Virtus away. If they win today they will have good chances to promote because they will have 2 wins over direct competitors away from home. Also such players as Gurovic can find their shot and kill any team. On other side we have Olimpija which appeared in crisis and there was some information that Olimpija again experience financial problems. But at home they can win against anyone. But here I think they are a bit overpriced. Real chances of winning are much lower than odds represent.
I expect unpredictable close game.
Prediction: Olimpija 72 - 72 Prokom
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