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Written by Alleks   
Thursday, 15 November 2007

Unicaja VS Maccabi Tel Aviv

Unicaja vs Maccabi 

predicted score

84 : 75

Marcus Haislip, recovered from eye problems, will be available for Unicaja. Sergio Scariolo holds him as very important player in his roster and playing schemes.  In addition, the Italian knows that in case of winning, Unicaja could put more attention to domestic competition, where Unicaja lost 4 games in a row and have game against Tau Ceramica this weekend away from home. Yesterday only 642 tickets were available for sale so without doubts today Unicaja's arena will be full of supporters.

Meanwhile Maccabi is in good spirits after hanging on for a tough win against Efes Pilsen last week and well rested after it Israeli League game was postponed. The team is still without injured All-Euroleague center Nikola Vujcic, but the performance of Esteban Batista off the bench last week gives head coach Oded Kattash reasons for optimism. Maccabi will need its big guys to step up against the Unicaja trio. Batista, Eliyahu and Terence Morris all seem to match up well against their counterparts, but the question mark surrounds Marcus Fizer, who is well-known in Spain after having a strong season last year for Murcia CB. Other interesting matchups could be Berni Rodriguez against David Bluthenthal at small forward and Bojan Popovic versus Will Bynum at point guard. This game could serve as a good test for both teams to prove themselves to see if they can challenge for the top spots in the group. The game will likely be an uptempo affair, as both teams' guards like to run and score. Whichever side can do so in a controlled way while also keeping the big guys involved and effective will have a big edge.


Betting Overview

I like situations when Malaga coach asks supporters to help his team. Usually in such hot atmosphere Unicaja plays really great and today I expect them to show their best basketball. By the way their level of play is much better than results & standings shows. They were looking well in most of the matches this season and if they would be more lucky in the end their 2-5 ACB league record could be turned to 4-3 at least. Anyway in my opinion Unicaja as a team is currently in better shape than Maccabi and with such athletic centers and forwards (Ndong, Haslip & Santiago) they should dominate against Maccabi front court.

I have seen several Maccabi games this season and I can't say that they are looking well. They have 5 games so far but they were lucky in their first season game in domestic championship (they did 12-0 run in the end of the game and won it), than they were trashed by Rytas without any hope for them, against Efes they were down by 9 points in 3rd quarter, against Leman they won game only in the end. So 4 of 5 games were really complicated for them and it's very big question for me how they will look like in Malaga where home team will supermotivated to win as much as they can to secure better margin before 2nd leg game in Tel Aviv.

I think that more fair line for this match should be Unicaja (-7.5) simply because Unicaja is in better form, plays at home against one of the weakest road teams in Euroleague (I am talking about last 2 season not about Gershon times in Tel Aviv). Also Maccabi is without their leader Vujcic while other leaders are in questionable form. Sold out arena, hot fans, great atmoshere and revenge feeling for last year when Maccabi won here in Malaga.. All in one, I expect Unicaja to win by 7-15 points today.

Pick: Unicaja (-5) @ 1.86 5/10 PinnacleSports
 

Roma VS Brose Baskets

Virtus Roma vs Brose Baskets

predicted score

81 : 64

Really suprised to see such low total for Roma in home match. Roma is in great shape and that 0-3 record says nothing to me. They were looking really great against PAO & Real in away matches, they were great against Benetton and they were too tired after such schedule in Turkey when they lost to Fenerbahce. But during last 2 weeks they did not have any trips and were able to train and live in Rome. This should reborn them and their beautiful game recently points to it. Just look at their offensive stats in last 7 games. In 6 of 7 games they score at least 10 (!!!) three pointers than add to this their inside power with Lorbek, Fucka, Tonoli & Gabini. They score over 72 points in 8 of 11 games this season and I don't see how Brose Baskets will be able to stop them in their first home game in Euroleague.

Sure Brose Baskets defense impress anyone, but let's be honest with ourselves. They managed to hold opponents under 70 points in all their Euroleague games so far but Panathinaikos is looking bad in offense at the start of the season, Roanne was playing away from home with them, and Real Madrid accepted than low tempo game. Roma with Ukic on playmaker position looks faster than it was last year and with such quards as Stefanson, Hawkins, Allen they looks really well. Even if Brose will be able to lower game pace I see good chances for Roma to score around 75 points because their key-players these days looking really impressive and they know how to play against tough defense. Don't forget that Roma also have great defense and if you play hard defense you should know how to break such defense.

10bet.com currently have 72-64 line as most other bookies but in my opinion more fair line for this match should be at least 76.5-64 because Roma should react today and win this game. Bookmakers simply can't set such high handicap because of current team results and position in the table, but what if Roma would win against Pao. What handicap would we see today? I think it would be at least 10 points.

My prediction is confident Roma win by 12-18 points. Maybe it sounds a bit too confident but it is my opinion.

Pick: Roma (-6) @ 1.71 5/10 Bet365.com
Pick: Roma over 72 @ 1.85 4/10 10Bet.com
 
A few words about other games where I don't see advantage over the line to bet money. To read games overview you should login to the site as a registered member (it is recommended to put a stick in remember me box to stay logged all the time).
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Comments
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tadejusce   |2007-11-15 15:04:10
M.Popovič (ŽAL) 12,5
J.Maciulis (ŽAL) 12,5
M.Milič (OLI) 13,5

J.Hukič (OLI) 14,5
G.Dragič (OLI) 10,5
J.Lakovič (BAR)
14,5
S.Jasikevicius (PAN) 11,5
I.Rakočevič (TAU) 16,5
R.Kaukenas (SIE)
15,5
Hi alleks!
In our local booke we have this lines for players. Could you
give few suggestiones for over and unders? I would be very thankful .
and
thanx for great picks
Alleks   |2007-11-15 15:21:23
Popovic fair line
Maciulis over 12.5.. with low stakes.
Milic over 13.5
Hukic -
skip
Dragic over 10.5
Lakovic.. probably under 14.5
Jasikevicius skip
Rakocevic
& Kaukenas fair lines.
luury  - hi!   |2007-11-15 16:53:59
I was wondering what do you think about Unicaja vs Maccabi over 153,5 ?
Alleks  - re: hi!   |2007-11-15 18:00:19
luury wrote:
I was wondering what do you think about Unicaja vs Maccabi over 153,5 ?


I think it's good bet.. Looking into season stats something like 82-73
is more correct.. but knowing maccabi style and poor defense it
looks like normal pick. not very confident but normal.. 
luury   |2007-11-15 19:01:16
OK. Thank you
kiif   |2007-11-15 19:19:28
What about Tau VS. Montepaschi under 157,5p? both are scoring very hard against
weaker teams
Alleks  - re:   |2007-11-15 19:24:14
kiif wrote:
What about Tau VS. Montepaschi under 157,5p? both are scoring very hard
against weaker teams


not sure about this because this game could be uptempo game.. at least
both teams like to play fast
paky  - Hi!   |2007-11-15 19:49:50
What do you think about Panathinaikos- Barcelona over 155,5p? Barca playing
weaker offense
Anonymous  - re: Hi!   |2007-11-15 21:27:08
paky wrote:
What do you think about Panathinaikos- Barcelona over 155,5p? Barca playing
weaker offense 


as I already said in preview line for PAO-Barca is fair (both spread and
total) but if would be forced to choose my selection would be
over (especially if you consider this pick a "TV-pick" only)
luury   |2007-11-16 01:13:53
You are a Genius with capital A, mate. Thak you very much for these excellent
hints/predictions.
maskinas  - BBL   |2007-11-17 18:25:41
Alleks what is your prediction about Rytas Zalgiris match?
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