CSKA was looking bad last week and Messina said that his players are tired due hard fixture. But we against see 9.5 pts handicap. And looks that public is tended to back Barcelona. I agree that this is logical bet because CSKA covered handicap only 2 times from 8 games at home (2 times handicap was set right and 0.5 pts difference decided outcome of the bet). But CSKA is still a big club and they usually plays much better in top games. Unfortunately this year it's very difficult to predict CSKA but today I would not be suprised to see more concetraded CSKA and I think that again handicap outcome will be decided in last minutes. It's very interesting to watch at lines history sometimes to make some resume. Last year bookmakers offered 1.35 on CSKA to win against Barcelona at home, and now they are offering "1.15 on CSKA to win against Barce after very poor performance against Roma". What does that mean? Maybe they expect CSKA to blow this evening? Like they did this weekend against Sibirtelekom by scoring 130 points?...

I think that CSKA offense should improve sooner or later because they usually find ways to the basket but can't put ball inside because of low concentration or other reasons. Barcelona is not looking well in last 2 weeks so I would not be suprised to see strong game from CSKA and poor one from Barcelona. Don't forget than CSKA have best guards-defense in Europe and Barcelona's sucess too much depends on their guards performance.

Prediction: CSKA should be able to build secure 9-12 points handicap somewhere in the middle of the game and than it all will depend on CSKA motivation and concetration. Now they have deep bench but many players are in downtrend so it is very hard to predict who will play better. In the end I expect CSKA to win by 7-12 pts but in offense they should look a bit better than usual.

Predicted score: CSKA 79 - 68 Barcelona

Possible picks: CSKA over 76.5 @ 1.87 10Bet.com , CSKA (-8.5) very risky one

Efes Pilsen - Montepaschi
Efes won against PAO mainly because of poor PAO motivation. PAO again showed their "bad side" by losing concetration in the game. Efes also looked well but not superb. Just they managed to avoid mistakes and play on PAO mistakes in defense and offense. Efes is not a low tempo team they usually play smart but quite fast basketball and against Montepaschi I think we will see something between low and high tempo game. In such kind of games I rate Montepaschi defense more productive because usually they allow opponents to score not more than 73-74 points, but Efes allowed more than 73 points in 8 of last 10 EL games. While Montepaschi scored 74+ points in 31 of 37 season games so far. Among those game when they scored under 74 points: 2 games was against CSKA, and 1 against Zalgiris after injuries without Lavrinovic & Kaukenas. Now Montepaschi looks to be in much better conditions than in the end of January and I expect them to score at least 74 points today.

Prediction: Game outcome will mostly depends on Efes offensive performance, if they will score more than 80 points they will be very close to win, but if Montepaschi will defend on their level without allowing opponent to score 73 points they will have perfect chance to steal very important win from Turkey.

Predicted score: Efes Pilsen 74 - 77 Montepaschi

Possible picks: Montepaschi to score over 74.5 @ 1.90 10Bet.com or Bwin.com

Lietuvos Rytas - Aris
Very important game for both teams. Any of them can't lose this game but also both teams are in small mid-season crisis. New faces in teams have yet to find their roles, while old faces are not at their best form. Both teams knows each other game style very well and will try to avoid mistakes they did in first 2 games. I honestly speaking don't know what to expect from teams because Aris will probably try to slow tempo to avoid fast breaks, while Rytas will try to play faster to avoid low-tempo game. Who will win this battle will cover handicap at least.

Prediction: Very hard game to predict looking from betting side. -9.5 pts handicap line is not looking fair in my opinion 6-7 pts line looks more correct but bookies set lines according to public demand. From other side taking Aris +9.5 is risky because they lost 3 games in a row by 20, 8 and 15 pts.. and Rytas at home is very hard team to beat. Logically Aris should be able to stay in this game until the end but I think that Rytas will prevail in very important home game. I expect both teams to struggle in offense in certain periods of the game and this should affect on game total. I see Rytas scoring around 75-79 pts and Aris around 66-71.

Prediction: Lietuvos Rytas 78 - 69 Aris

 

Possible picks: Under 151.5 @ 1.94 PinnacleSports

About other 2 games in few words.

Panathinaikos should use their defense today to avoid problems in the end of the game with friendly club. I expect PAO to win comfortable by 13-16 pts (83-67 i.e.)

Tau is unpredictable is such games. All scenarios are possible but TAU will win.

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