Euroleague Top-16 Week 1: Wednesday Picks

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Written by Alleks

Wednesday, 13 February 2008

VS

CSKA Moscow - Lottomatica Roma

The game figures to be a tough test for both sides as they look to begin the Top 16 in style. CSKA finished the regular season as the Group A champion and won its last three games. Moreover the Russian champs have won 24 consecutive Euroleague home games. On the other hand Roma, which only advance to the Top 16 as the best sixth-placed finisher, has nevertheless proven to be a dangerous opponent. Head coach Jasmin Repesa’s squad won their last two road games and lost three others on the road at reining champion Panathinaikos, Real Madrid and Partizan by a combined 14 points. The game will be the first between the two proud franchises in over 20 years. CSKA will take the floor for the first time since losing the Russian Cup final last week and head coach Ettore Messina’s men will look to erase that memory with a win. Both teams also will unveil new signings for the game. CSKA brings back defensive center Thomas Van den Spiegel, who helped the club to the 2006 Euroleague title, while Roma added Ibrahim Jaaber, who was leading the Greek League in scoring. Van den Spiegel figures to be involved in one of the game’s more important matchups as CSKA will look to stop Roma’s biggest interior weapon and his former teammate, Erazem Lorbek. It could be a tough time for Lorbek, who will also see another former teammate at times, Marcus Goree. The importance of those matchups is highlighted due to the depth that both teams feature on the perimeter, with J.R. Holden, Theo Papaloukas, Trajan Langdon and Ramunas Siskauskas leading CSKA against Roma’s Roko-Leni Ukic, David Hawkins, Allan Ray, Jon Stefansson and newcomer Jaaber.

Betting overview

Unfortunately for Roma's coach Allan Ray, Jon Stefannson are going to miss this game because of injuries while Jaaber minutes are hard to predict because it will be his first game for Roma and also it's hard to say how he will play on this level. His former team Egaleo is very far away from Euroleague level and CSKA defense should prevail here. Ukic will be under huge press of best Europe defender J.R.Holden and D.Hawkins will be pressed by Langdon & Siskauskas. I see seriuos match up problems for Roma today in Moscow and this could become decisive factor today. Also motivation factor is talking for Moscow team because after losing a cup they should bring back their confidence level and according to N.Zisis blog on superbasket.gr looks like that Moscow team is ready for strong start.

Also we must take into consideration that CSKA will count on Spiegel and V.Khriapa today and these signings should make Messina job much easier because now he have 2 players on each position against and young team members can be leaved on the bench. And if this game will go to "bench vs bench" battle CSKA should prevail there.

Prediction: CSKA will dictate tempo of this game and will be dominated team on the court. Looks like Roma is not interested in this game and if CSKA will find their level from first minutes this could be an easy walk-over for Moscow. Points difference could be important at the end of Top-16 so I expect CSKA to win by comfortable margin. CSKA to win by 15-23 points. Most bookies already moved handicap line to 15 points but I will buy some handicap points at Bet365.com. But don't forget that CSKA form is questionable so only medium-low stakes are advised.

Predicted score: CSKA 81 - Roma 64

Pick: CSKA (-12.5) @ 1.71 3/10 Bet365.com

VS

Efes Pilsen vs Panathinaikos

Efes Pilsen and Panathinaikos will clash in the Top 16 for the third consecutive season on Wednesday when the defending champs arrive in Istanbul for the first game of Group D. The Greens have won the last three meetings between the teams, sweeping last season’s games by an average margin of victory of 20.5 points per game. However many roster changes since then give this clash a different look. The most recent of those changes for Panathinaikos saw the Greek champs sign big man Niksa Prkacin, who spent the previous four seasons with Efes and will now go head-to-head with former teammates Kerem Gonlum and Ermal Kuqo. Both teams finished the regular season with defeats and know that there is nothing like a victory to change their momentum as the Top 16 gets underway. On paper the teams have very similar styles, with coaches that stress defense, deep benches and creative guards that inspire high-powered offenses. To that end the play of the backcourts and how much they are able to create for their respective big men could be the key to victory. With Scoonie Penn, Drew Nicholas and Rashad Wright, Efes features three guards that can handle the ball and score. The Greens match that number with Sarunas Jasikevicius, Vassilis Spanoulis and Sani Becirovic and then raise it through three-time Euroleague Basketball Best Defender award winner Dimitrios Diamantidis. The small forward matchup between the hosts’ Kenny Gregory and the visitors’ Kennedy Winston pits two players of similar abilities against one another. In the paint, Prkacin and Demos Dikoudis figure to be Panathinaikos’s go-to guys, since Efes seemed to find a way to stop Mike Batiste last season (5.5 points on 35.7% shooting), while Loren Woods, Andre Hutson, Gonlum and Kuqo make up a solid frontcourt for the home team.

Betting overview

Efes Pilsen is very dangerous team but looks like something does not work inside the team. It's already 5th month since Blatt coaching them but team results are far from expected I think. Looks like Blatt can't organize this team to play smart and this is what they need to have chances today against PAO. They must play well and not allow PAO to make a run. Unfortunately this year they allowed such opponents runs in 5 of 7 home games. Only against Cibona and unmotivated Unicaja they dictate their game. In all others games they had huge problems. In my opinion Efes have defensive problems (last 4 games allowed more than 80 points) while in offense they don't have 5-6 players who can score 10+ points in every game. They usually have 2-3 players who score points in offense but others are sleeping.. Without good all-around offense it's hard to beat PAO and if you have problems in defense this task looks impossible.

PAO have tough group so I think Obradovic and his players understand that they must win all games at the start of this stage to qualify into playoffs as soon possible. For this game they have some losses (Tsarsaris, Tomasevic) but Obradovic still have Batiste, Dikuodis, Zizic and Prkacin to compete with strong Efes frontline. But looking into guards line PAO have very big advantage because Penn & Nicholas will have very difficult life today against Diamantidis, Jasikevicius, Becirovic and Spanoulis. 4 players against 2.. too much to overcame.

Prediction: Efes should be able to stay in the game at the start but sooner or later PAO will find a way to take this game under control. It's hard to say when it will happen but I think that somewhere in the 2nd quarter PAO will build 5-7 pts lead and increase it the 2nd half. Pao to win by 6-10 points.

Predicted score: Efes Pilsen 76 - 84 Panathinaikos

Pick: Panathinaikos (-4.5) @ 1.71 3/10 Bet365.com

VS

Lietuvos Rytas vs. Tau Ceramica

Top 16 Group E gets underway on Wednesday when regular season Group B champ Lietuvos Rytas hosts Group A runner-up Tau Ceramica at the Siemens Arena in Vilnius, Lithuania. Both teams are legitamite Final Four contenders, but also know the potential pitfalls a slow start to the Top 16 can provide. While Tau has experienced this stage with great success – it has reached each of the last three Final Fours – L. Rytas is in the Top 16 for only the second time and struggled in its first try two seasons ago. Ironically, its head coach then is now on the Tau sidelines, Neven Spahija, along with one of the key players from that L. Rytas squad, sharpshooter Simas Jasaitis. The hosts will be unveiling a new face for the game, big man Jackson Vroman, who like the team’s starting playmaker, spent last season in Spain and is familiar with Tau. One of the most important factors for L. Rytas figures to be how quickly Vroman, who takes over for the injured Matt Nielsen, can mesh with the rest of the team’s big men, particularly Marijonas Petravicius and Kenan Bajramovic. They will go up against a deep Tau frontcourt led by Tiago Splitter, Mirza Teletovic and Will McDonald. An intriguing matchup awaits at point guard, where Price and reserve Jared Jordan will compete with Tau’s Zoran Planinic and Pablo Prigioni. Meanwhile the hosts’ Mindaugas Lukauskis and Arturas Jomantas will hope to wear down Tau’s leading scorer, Igor Rakocevic and at the small forward spot, L. Rytas’s Chuck Eidson brings the complete package against Pete Mickeal. This game between the two group favorites could set the tone in Group E. A road win for Tau would suddenly make it the group favorite, while a convincing performance from L. Rytas, which was 6-1 at home in the regular season, would prove its regular season run was no fluke. With both teams sure to be hungry, the game could come down to the key matchup of Price against Prigioni/Planinic. If the L. Rytas point guard can hold his own, score and create for big men Petravicius and Vroman inside, L. Rytas will have a big advantage. But if the size of Planinic or defensive skills of Prigioni prove to be too much for Price, the advantage would swing to the visitors, who with their knowledge of Vilnius through Spahija and Jasaitis have a distinct edge already.

Betting overview

Honesly speaking I can't say that I am sure about Rytas today. Main reason as a poor game level in last few games. They had very bad games against Cibona, Siauliai & Zalgiris in Lithuanian Cup. Seems that loss of Nielsen hurted team more than they expected and Vroman needs time to find his role in this team, but even if he will find his role he can't substitute Nielsen leader's spirit on the court. Also Rytas game depends on H.Price & Petravicius duo too much and TAU have potential to close both of them by using Splitter & Prigioni (Planinic). Tau is very experienced team and I think they can make things difficult for Rytas in offense where Rytas experience some difficulties these days.

Tau on other side have full roster but team should be tired after 3 hard games on King's Cup. But this is not a factor to lay them today in Vilnius. As I previuosly said spanish team have very long bench and many options how match up with Rytas. They also have problems in offense against good defensive teams as cup games showed. But in defense they looks very solid now. Look at 12 Tau quarters in defence in cup 3 games: 16 17 22 16 (vs Unicaja) - 16 16 15 19 (vs Bilbao) - 13 17 25 27 (vs Joventud). Looks like Spahija finaly finished building team defense and if this defensive performance will continue I see this game to be very very close and money line backers will need to count on luck to win.

Prediction: I think that current line where Rytas is listed as 1.5-2.5 pts favorite is a fair one. Because playing at home they are very hard nut to crack even for top-teams. Also Tau tireness factor is included in the line. I see this game very close one and taking into consideration that both teams offenses if far from the best while defensive skills are very high at both clubs I don't think that this game will be a high scoring. As for me fair total line should be around 151.5 points and my total expactation is even lower. I predict 136-146 points game here.

Predicted score: Lietuvos Rytas 74 - 69 Tau Ceramica

Pick: Under 156.5 @ 1.83 5/10 Bet365.com