CSKA is a favorite to win group according to bookies odds. I agree with them that CSKA have best chances to win this group because they are only team in Europe together with PAO which feels good in away courts. But looking at their form and troubles with a roster I can't be sure that they will go to a group winner title as easy as odds shows. They have 2 hard away games in Spain, but if they win all home games with good points margin and away against Rome they will qualify for sure, and most probably from first place.

Barcelona's direct competitor in a fight for promotion is Unicaja. Barcelona showed that they are better team than Roma in regular phase but now I think they would not lose home against them. Extremely important games will be spanish derbies with Unicaja where 2nd qualifier will be decided. Before Cabezas' injury I rated Barcelona's chances lower because Unicaja have better home court and better team, but now I think Barcelona is owner of their destiny. Anyway they need to get advantage over Unicaja in all possible ways to make life easier in this group. Also Barcelona have talent to win against CSKA in last round, so Barca is slight favorite to qualify into playoffs.

Unicaja have really long bench, good home court and experience but injuries hit them not at best time. They lost Berny Rodriguez and Cabezas for first games at Top-16 phase and they will be forced to play without them against Roma and Barcelona in first 2 away games. 2nd game against Roma is very-very important for them because if they lose to Roma they will need to win against CSKA at home in Day 3. Sure they have talent to achieve this goal but without 2 important players it's quiestionable. Many will depend on T.Castle form and ability to play in new team on most important position.

Roma is an outsider in this group but comparing to others outsiders they are very dangerous team especially at home where they can beat anyone (maybe except CSKA only). But Roma must find a way how to win away from home. In this group they will play against very good home teams and I doubt about their chances to win away from home at least one game. While at home I hardly see them winning all 3 games because any team from this group have better rosters.

Summary

CSKA is a favorite to win this group and I expect them to achieve this goal without big problems. Barcelona looks to be in better conditions in February that Unicaja but first game against Unicaja will be very important for them. I suppose Barcelona will revenge to Unicaja for last year playoffs stage when they were kicked off by Malaga from Final Four. Malaga represents a danger in this group even with injuries they have. Their roster is quite deep and if Castle will find his place quickly they can make suprise again. Roma will fight at home with all teams but I would be suprised to see them winning more than 2-3 times and this should not be enough for promotion into playoffs. Also I don't think that this Roma roster is build for playoffs so expect  Unicaja and Barcelona to fight until last day for promotion while CSKA will be at the top.

Group winner odds analysis

 

1.18-1.30 on CSKA to win group are funny odds. Really can't see CSKA such strong favorite to win this group with 2 Spanish teams capable to beat CSKA at home. CSKA currently is not in good shape but first 2 games at home will help them to find better form but I still can't be sure that CSKA will be able to build solid handicaps at home and win in both spanish travels. So my advice is not to back at these odds. Value is on Unicaja side because they have very deep and balanced roster to win against Barca both times, get home win over CSKA and win both games against Roma, but injuries is what worries me. But if there is a value in this group it's Unicaja to win a group @ 11.0.

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