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TOP 16 GROUP F
Real Madrid was not lucky with a draw. They will meet 2 very dangerous opponents Maccabi and Olympiacos, while Zalgiris is also could be dangerous team especially at home. But Real have easy schedule, They start by playing 2 games at home and in both games they need to build solid handicaps because in such strong group it really could become decisive. Both opponents Zalgiris and Olympiacos are not in optimal conditions yet but in the 2nd half of this stage Oly could be very dangerous under new coach. So I think that Real will do everything to start strong, and will try to win both times against Zalgiris. This should be enough for promotion into playoffs. 4 wins and solid points difference should push Real into playoffs.
Maccabi have very difficult schedule. They start by 2 away games in Greece and than in Kaunas. It's hard to say if Maccabi will be able to beat Oly in Greece but against Zalgiris they will try for sure because this will be a must win game for them. In day 3 they will host Real Madrid and this could be turn around point for them (sure depending on results in first 2 games). I still can identify Maccabi's real potential but looks like they will fight for promotion in this group, but I would not be suprised to see 0-2 start and than 4-0 run.. I think that we will need to calculate points margin in the end to know if Maccabi have entered Euroleague playoffs.
Olympiacos changed coach recovered Macijauskas and might change their Euroleague season. For this they will need to win at any cost their starting game against Maccabi. And try to win with big points margin. Than very hard and nothing good promising travel to Madrid and than Zalgiris at home. Olympiacos must with both games against Zalgiris and now I think they should look much better than before so Oly is a team to watch in this group because this year with healthy Macijauskas they are looking very strong. Their destiny depends on their first game and series against Zalgiris. If no losses than good chances to promote because they will meet Real Madrid at home in last round and maybe Real Madrid would not be motivated in that round and Oly will be able to take extra win.
Zalgiris is clear outside of this group. I think that their maximum is 1 or 2 wins (but most probable scenario is 1 win at home..). All top teams will be extra motivated against Zalgiris because they can't lose points against them to stay in a fight for promotion. More of that all opponents have better rosters, better coaches, bigger experience, better mentality in other words all others teams in this group all-around betters team than Zalgiris. In my opinion Zalgiris will have some chances against Maccabi in Day 2 of TOP-16. Also they can try to steal a win from Madrid while Madrid is not in best shape as King's Cup showed. But I think that was only a vision.. Real did not wanted that cup because they know the importance of starting game. So clear role of outsider and Zalgiris can only dream about playoffs in such strong group.
SummaryReal Madrid is a favorite to win this group, while Maccabi and Olympiacos will fight for 2nd spot. Very hard to predict who will be second qualifier beside of Real Madrid, but looks like this will be a team which will lose to Zalgiris in Kaunas. Zalgiris will be outsider of this group not only because opponents are better teams but also because all teams will be extra motivated not to lose points against Kaunas.
Group winner odds analysisMost bookies offer 1.60 on Real to win a group. I think that this is right chances estimation from bookies and I can't say that we have value here. Real will have at least 2 very difficult away matches against Maccabi and Olympiacos, also recent form of Real Madrid don't impress me and it's hard to be sure for a good start in first 2 games against Zalgiris and Olympiacos. Olympiacos and Maccabi have same chances to win this group as well as Kaunas have no chances to win it. So right odds with no value.. at least for now.
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