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Euroleague Top-16: Group E Analysis |
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Written by Alleks
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Wednesday, 06 February 2008 |
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Lietuvos Rytas have all chances to make club history and promote into Euroleague quarterfinals. For sure they are capable to win at least 2 games against Fenerbahce and Aris, also against Tau Ceramica I rate their chances as good but only because of home factor and because first game will be played at home. Tau could be tired after King Cup and Rytas will use this factor into their favor. Aris & Fenerbahce should be beat at home and the most important thing for Rytas is to build good pts difference because all away games could be very difficult. But I think that Rytas may win at least 1 or 2 games away from home and may be enough for promotion. I am not sure about winning a group because many ties is possible here but certainly everything is in Rytas hands. Prediction: 4 wins - 2 losses
Tau Ceramica is certainly a bookie favorite to win this group. Looking into teams I might agree with them. TAU have solid home court record where it is impossible to beat them and have really big experience in Euroleague. Tau theoretically should win all 3 home games and take 2 aways wins. I think that at least one game will be lost by them because Aris & Rytas have power to beat them playing at home. Let's see. Prediction: 4-5 wins - 1-2 losses.
Aris shocked many punters in the beginning of the season when they took a lead in group after 3 rounds but now they lost suprise factor. All teams knows them very well and their weak away record should play against in Top-16. They are still a good home and I think that they can take points from Rytas or Tau playing at home, and also they must win against Fenerbahce. But unfortunately away from home they have small chances especially in Lithuania and Spain. Turkish-Greek battles should be very encouraging here.
Fenerbahce in my opinion is weakest team here because their game style is too predictable and "too-personal". You can't win games with so many individual performance especially against such strong teams like Rytas and Tau. Also Aris have much more option for game plans and all these teams are great in defence. I think that Fenerbahce will fight for a wins only at home and will probably take some points only against Aris.
Summary
Rytas and Tau are clear favorites to win qualify from this group. Aris may enter a battle if they will win against Rytas or TAU at home but I doubt that Aris will manage to take 3 wins and build solid points difference to promote from this group. The same situation is with Fenerbahce so Tau and Rytas have most realistic chances to promote from group D.
Group winner odds analysis
As for me Rytas to win a group is worth a shot. At least know it looks like that group winner will be decided in 4th round when Rytas will play in Spain against Tau. Rytas played Tau in their last Euroleague season and were able to win that game but lost it the end. Sure now different rosters but here we have one factor into our side. Rytas will host game against Tau next week when Tau could be tired after King Cup. Rytas to win a group @ 3.50 (Gamebookers ) is worth a shot in my opinion.
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