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Euroleague Top-16: Group D Analysis |
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Written by Alleks
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Wednesday, 06 February 2008 |
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Euroleague Top-16 phase will start next week so I decided to analyze 4 groups after draw and make some predictions which could be used for some long-term bets if anyone like such kind of bets.
Panathinaikos is favorite of this group but I would not say that they are clear favorites because both Montepaschi and Efes have good rosters and strong home courts where they are tough to beat. At home I expect PAO to win all 3 games, away from home they also should not experience problems at least against Partizan (it's not regular phase so no friendship from PAO side anymore) but Montepaschi or Efes may steal one game from PAO. Prediction: 5 wins - 1 loss
Montepaschi will have a tough life in this group. They were good in first half of the season but they will be under pressure and I honestly doubt about their abilities. Efes and PAO are very athletic and experienced teams and Montepaschi can stuggle against them even at home. Partizan should be beaten by them both times but at Belgrad everything is possible and PAO already proved this many times. Montepaschi should win at least 2-3 home games (Partizan & Efes) and win one game in Serbia. They could be easily defeated away from by Efes and PAO so at least 2 losses could be predicted and hard life in Belgrad is guaranteed. Prediction: 4 wins - 2 losses
Efes Pilsen have all chances to make suprise here. Blatt is great coach and knows how to win key games. I rate Efes very angerous team at least at home where they are very hard to stop. During the first phase they were not stable team but now it's different time and with Blatt experience we can expect some improvement. Efes must take at least 2 wins at home (Partizan & Montepaschi) and I would not be suprised to see them winning against PAO too (depends on other factors). Efes will probably have very similar record with Montepaschi and point difference (or win against PAO) should become decisive factor here.
Partizan. Goal is achieved. Partizan reached Top-16 but here they will need more than home court and soul to win games. Here they will need class, winning mentality and ability to win some matches away from home. Unfortunately Partizan is too young and disbalanced roster to win against PAO, Efes and Montepaschi away from home and I expect them to be real outsiders of this group. More of that I am not sure if they will win at least one game because other teams knows that they can't lose points against Partizan because this will cost them place in playoff.
Summary
PAO is clear favorite of this group at least when we are talking about qualification into next phase. Efes and Montepaschi should fight until last round for promotion and at least now I can't predict who will qualify. Montepaschi plays against Efes at home in March and they will know points difference so here is why Montepaschi have advantage.
Group winner odds analysis
PAO to win group @ 1.20... Really can't see PAO such strong favorite. Both Montepaschi and Efes can compete against PAO away from home and I can't be sure that they would not be able to win against PAO at home (especially Montepaschi). If PAO will lose 2 games away from home group winner can be any of these 3 teams. So my only advice not to touch PAO at these odds.
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