CSKA crisis is in the past but it still hard to say what kind of performance to expect from Moscow team today. As for me CSKA is still a better team both offensively and defensively than Olympiacos. CSKA as club knows the important of first game and we should expect 100& motivated club today. But handicap set at very high points because 10.5 pts difference is not easy to cover especially in low tempo game. Important factor before this game is that CSKA is preparing for this game since last Thursday
Olympiacos on other side looks relaxed and motivated to provide with another surprise. But right before these series they break contract with their main center M.Jackson and now it's hard to predict how this will affect on their game. Since Yannakis came to this club they are playing much more like a team with no real leader so offensively M.Jackson loss should be compensated but looking into this problem from rotation side I see some problems here because Tsakalidis is not ready to play at such high level while Boroussis and Vasiloupoluos can't cover this position. It is important to notice that now Olympiacos is very low-tempo team doing in average 155 possesion per game and I will be suprised to see high-tempo game from them today in Moscow because simply don't have enough offensive weapons to stay close in offensive game.
Prediction: This should be a very low tempo game with no team scoring over 75 points. Handicap outcome will be decided by CSKA defense if they will close Oly offense under 65 points most probably they will cover but it is still hard to predict this CSKA. I think that if we want to find some betting edge here we should start from low tempo game and defensive approach of both teams. My prediction is that CSKA will score in the 70-77 pts range while Oly offensive performance will be limited in the 62-67 pts line. According to this estimations fair line should be 73.5-63 and maybe this is hint for a pick in this game.
Predicted score: CSKA 75 - 62 Olympiacos Tv-Pick: Under 143 @ 1.86 PinnacleSports Maccabi Elite vs F.C. Barcelona According to official Barcelona's coach statement before this game in spanish press Barcelona's game plan for today's game is to stop Maccabi transition and hard defense on 3 point line. Barcelona allowed only 64 pts per game in Top-16 phase and looks like Barcelona really can relay on their defense in these series. On other side Maccabi under Sherf already proved that they can matchup with any defensive minded team because they can defend under 75 points when needed.
All in one I think that 79 points on Maccabi is a little to high I would set Maccabi total at 76.5 pts mark against Barcelona defense. Barcelona offense without Lakovic in offensive schemes looks weaker but still capable of scoring 70-75 in any game. As for today I think that 71.5 pts on Barcelona against Maccabi playoff-defense looks more fair. Maybe I am wrong but my line for this game is 76.5-71.5 which totals is only 147 points.
Prediction: A lot will depend on Maccabi game plan. If they will accept defensive aproach of this battle this should not be a very high scoring game. Maccabi as a strong home side should have more chances to win this game but against Barcelona it's hard to expect a walk-over type of the game. Maccabi should manage to win by 4-7 pts in the end.
Predicted score: Maccabi 77 - 69 Barcelona Pick: Under 154.5 Bet365.com Tau Ceramica vs. Partizan Belgrade Partizan is in top form these days but I still can't believe that they are in playoffs. And honestly speaking I avoid betting against teams I don't understand at all. Partizan is type of such teams. In the first phase of Euroleaugue season Partizan often struggled away from home in offense where score 70+ only in 4 of 10 games. Tau Ceramica have defense but if their offense is working well they don't defend at 100%. Right now TAU offense is hot and I think that we can expect 80+ from them today. On other side we have top-form Partizan and if serbian team will score 70+ points this game could be a high scoring. But 158 points line have so many scenarios included: starting from 85-69 TAU win to 80-78 last minute Partizan win. I will skip this game because I can't say what to expect here.
Montepaschi Siena vs. Fenerbahce Ulker Another game I decided to skip because here is a turkish team which I hate. I often do mistakes when trying to understand turkish teams and now I see Fenerbahce in playoffs. Statisticaly it should be a high scoring game but Montepaschi defense is one of the best in Europe right now and if they will choose defensive plan they can close turkish offense for sure. On other side sometimes Fenerbahce offense is impossible to stop like it was in game against Aris and Lietuvos Rytas in Top-16. If Montepaschi will meet problems in defense they will turn on their offense where 7-8 players can contribute 10+ pts in each game. Very hard game to predict here but I think that Montepaschi will get comfortable win here by 10+ pts.
