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One of the most exciting Quarterfinal Playoffs clashes in recent history will be decided one way or another on Wednesday when CSKA Moscow hosts Olympiacos Piraeus in deciding Game 3 in the Russian capital. Olympiacos stunned CSKA in Game 1 74-76 on Lynn Greer’s buzzer-beating jump shot, but CSKA evened the score in Game 2 in Athens as the trio of Matjaz Smodis, Trajan Langdon and Ramunas Siskauskas shined in a 73-83 victory. Now both teams will pull out all the stops and try to put their best foot forward to clinch a spot at next month’s Final Four in Madrid.

History favors CSKA, as not only have head coach Ettore Messina’s charges been to a record five consecutive Final Fours, but never before had the Russian champs lost a playoff game at home and the odds of that happening twice in eight days are slim. Furthermore, never before has a Euroleague Basketball series seen all the games go to the visiting team. On the other hand, the Reds have reasons for optimism. Head coach Panagiotis Giannakis’s charges have shown plenty of mental toughness recently, including winning their last three road games at some tough arenas. Additionally, Olympiacos forward Qyntel Woods has been hot lately on both ends of the floor and his Game 1 defensive showing against reigning Euroleague MVP Theo Papaloukas was a main reason for the outcome of that contest. However the Reds, who have battled injuries all season long, will be shorthanded again as Arvydas Macijauskas and Kostas Vasileadis are out against CSKA. A key statistic in the series thus far has been three-point shooting. CSKA was below its average with just 36.8% in its Game 1 loss, but made 54.5% in the Game 2 win. Meanwhile Olympiacos shot 50% from downtown in Moscow, but 37.5% in Athens. If any of the many sharpshooters on either side heats up in Game 3, it could prove to be a major factor between these defensive minded sides. CSKA will look to its experience to help get through this challenge as it can boast a roster with eight players that won the Euroleague title with the club two years ago. Olympiacos will look to Greer to lead the team, with Woods, Rod Blakney and reserves Georgios Printezis and Ioannis Bouroussis asked to rise to the occasion. All signs point to a tense and low-scoring defensive battle, however with so many excellent offensive players on the floor, one man’s brilliance can make the difference in a series whose outcome will shape two teams’ entire season.

Betting overview

Another important factor I see here is a fatique. Olympiacos will play 7th game in 15 days and with limited rotation because Macijauskas and Vassiliadis already out of the game, while Mafrokevalidis is doubtful. CSKA is well rested because they did not have games in Russian Superleague this weekend and their freshness really could be a deciding factor. Another small but important details which impose me to think that CSKA will win this game is that Messina finaly started to work with a team (he was not able to train before first 2 games because of family problems in Italy). Third reason is that CSKA was looking very confident in Greece and looks like they again founded their rhythm and confidence, all tickets were sold for this game so public should push CSKA into Final Four. Papaloukas is only player who said something about game plan and it was simple: "dominate on the field from 1st till 40 minute". Also Vad Den Spiegel will be registered for this game and this will make center rotation deeper and also will help to control rebound.

As for Oly looks like their legs and heads started to tire in last 2 games with CSKA and Panionios. Now they travelled to Moscow without 2 bench players and I doubt that they will be able to show their best today in Moscow. I agree that Olympiacos is a much better team now but let's be honest it's not Final Four calibre team and now they should be tired and emotionaly empty because they lost their chance to win this series.

Prediction: CSKA will finaly start strong and with public support will increase lead to 12-16 pts before the half time. If CSKA would not lose motivation this game could be same type as last year 3rd game between CSKA and Maccabi when Moscow superclub demolished their opponents. In the end CSKA will allow Olympiacos to cut the lead but I expect CSKA win by more than 10 points.


Tau Ceramica v KK Partizan Beograd

Tau Ceramica will look to wrap up a ticket to its fourth consecutive Final Four when it hosts Partizan Igokea in the third and final game of their Quarterfinal Playoffs series on Wednesday at the Fernando Buesa Arena in Vitoria, Spain. The winner will move on to next month’s Final Four in Madrid, while the loser finishes its Euroleague season immediately with the conclusion of this excitement-filled do-or-die affair. Thus far the series has gone the way of the home teams. Tau took Game 1 74-66 behind an excellent shooting night from Zoran Planinic, while Partizan whipped Tau 76-55 in Game 2 as Novica Velickovic shined with 17 points and 12 rebounds. A focal point in Game 3 is certain to be the battle in the paint, which the Serbian champs have controlled thus far. In the two games, Nikola Pekovic and Velickovic have totally outshined their Tau counterparts, particularly Tiago Splitter who has been severely limited due to foul trouble. Splitter, Will McDonald and Mirza Teletovic have combined for 32 points and 20 rebounds in the two games. Velickovic alone has 27 points and 20 rebounds for Partizan in that same period. If Tau head coach Neven Spahija can cook up a plan to turn things around inside, Tau will be the clear favorite to win at home, where the club is 10-1 this season and undefeated in quarterfinal history. History also favors Tau as never before has a team won at least five Top 16 games and failed to reach the Final Four. Tau was 5-1 in Group E this season. Furthermore, home teams are 5-1 thus far in Game 3s of past Quarterfinal Playoff series with the lone away winner Tau, which beat Panathinaikos in Athens two years ago. Tau’s go-to guy remains shooting guard Igor Rakocevic, who together with Planinic and Pablo Prigioni carries the team’s backcourt. Partizan has Euroleague Basketball’s March MVP, Milt Palacio, together with Dusan Kecman, Uros Tripkovic and Milenko Tepic as its main perimeter options. Working in Partizan’s head coach Dusko Vujosevic’s favor is the fact that his young team has had it’s back to the wall before and may be better prepared for the pressure of the deciding game. Partizan didn’t wrap up a Top 16 berth until its last game of the regular season and then needed to knock off defending Euroleague champion Panathinaikos in its Top 16 finale just to reach the playoffs. Now Partizan will be tested once more with everything riding on one exciting game.

Betting overview

Tau was not looking as theirselfes in first 2 games but now they should be better. My point of view is the same as Spahija said on Euroleague official site about this game: "I have to say that I have a very good feeling after watching the team’s practices after the last defeat. We lost our last two games against big teams and we felt very tired, but I saw a team that wants to do a lot of things on the court and I feel we are in better condition than before the second game in Belgrade. Tau didn't forget how to play basketball. When we lose a game, we always analyze the reasons why and one of the reasons we lost these last games is that we felt exhausted after playing four very demanding games in only seven days. Now we have enough time to rest and get ready for this challenge and I think that the team mentally will be at its best. There is room for some changes, for sure, as you cannot miss such a great opportunity like this, when you play for the ticket to the Final Four. I expect a very different game than the one we played in Belgrade. I think it will be more similar to the one we played in Vitoria. Partizan is a tough team, they proved it already, and they will be well prepared, especially because they had no games to play after the second match. We had to play a hard game in Badalona, but we had three days to rest and there is no place for excuses now. It's enough time to get ready. The team wants to give its best and it will give it"

Tau Ceramica is experienced team and knows how to play big games especially at home. Partizan was looking very good in Game2 but Tau was awful there. Today I expect TAU finally to shaken things in offense where they had troubles in last 3 games and this should help them to win this series.

Prediction: Tau will try to dominate with help of their offense which struggled lately but Partizan also can play offensive basketball when needed. At home they scored 80+ points in 20 of 24 games and after 3 games without reaching this border they find a way to score those open shots they missed in first 2 games. Both teams coaches said that they had prepared some secret game plans and it would be very interesting to see what kind of suprises we will see today. As for me 3rd game should be more offensive-minded than first 2 games where both offenses were not at their best.

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