VS

The Croatian champs feel more confident at home, where they can put out a run-and-gun show by speeding up the tempo and getting top guns Chris Warren and Larry Ayuso involved. Warren is an all-around scorer who loves to take it to the basket, while Ayuso is a streak shooter with unlimited range. Both players found their perfect complement in playmaker Damir Mulaomerovic, who once again will try to keep everyone involved. Point guard Tre Kelley and defensive ace and fan-favorite forward Marin Rozic both can play a critical role for Cibona.  Rozic will have the tough mission to guard Nicolas Batum, one of the best young players in European basketball. Ayuso and Warren will have a shootout against Nebojsa Bogavac and Raviv Limonad, while Yannick Bokolo will try to slow down the tempo and get Le Mans' frontcourt involved, while trying to stop Mulaomerovic. Le Mans runs its offense through its deep, versatile frontcourt led by Sam Clancy, a solid power forward with good post moves and an effective mid-range jumper. Phil Ricci offers aggressiveness in the paint, while Luka Bogdanovic is a talented forward with unlimited range, who is starting to show his entire potential. At center, Alain Koffi is a tremendous rebounder, ready to test his skills against Cibona big man Sam Hoskin, who comes off a 15-point, 9-rebound effort against Maccabi Elite Tel Aviv. Luksa Andric is having a career-best season, but has suffered from inconsistent play. However Andric is averaging 14 points in home games, compared to 4.7 on the road. If Cibona is able to speed up the game tempo and find open shots in short possessions, it will have an excellent chance to win the game. Le Mans needs to opt for a patient offense, as well as slowing Ayuso and Warren. Expect a big battle of styles where anything can happen between two young and talented sides in Zagreb.

 

Betting overview

If you would take a closer look into team overall stats in domestic leagues and Euroleague you will find out that average teams numbers are as follows: Cibona (80-78) and LeMans (73-71.5). Now try to calculate fair statistical line and it should be 75.5-75.5. But for some reason we see -8.5 pts line for Cibona..I see only 2 reasons why such handicap was set. First is a home court advantage and second reason is Lemans 0-5 record. But we have to remember that Cibona this season never had won by more than 10 points. It is simply hard to beat such handicaps without solid defense. And I see good chance for us to play on this.

Lemans is very good form recently. I have watched their game vs Unicaja and must say that they were not weaker than Unicaja. Lemans simply was not ready to win in the end.. They tried but instead of winning lost that game by 9 points. But they still are hot.. they are perfect in last 4 games in French Pro A league, they still lost only one game by more than 6 points, they still have motivation to win and finally they have defense.. something that Cibona don't have. Also Lemans have physical power and it would be easy for Cibona to overcame French americans. And finally Lemans won against Cibona in preparation game 76-66 so they should believe in theirselves.

In my opinion this game should be a walkover for croatian team. More fair line according to my estimations should be -5.5 for Cibona and only because of their home field. If this game would be played on neutral field I would set 50/50 chances line.As for today I think this should be close game and if Lemans would control this game noone should be suprised.

 

Predicted score: Cibona 76 - 79 Lemans

 

 

Lottomatica Roma returns home Wednesday to host AXA FC Barcelona in a crucial Group C encounter. Roma is only 1-4 and tied for sixth place in the group standings, but it has played only one home game all season, which it won by 24 points. Head coach Jasmin Repesa's charges will now play four of their next five at home knowing that every win will help the club climb higher in the standings. Meanwhile Barcelona arrives after a rewarding victory over arch rival Real Madrid, which saw the team's record improve to 3-2, good for third place in the group. Guard Jaka Lakovic was once again the star for Barca in that game with 14 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists. Roma has benefited from three players having breakout starts to the season at three key positions: Erazem Lorbek in the paint, Jon Stefansson on the perimeter and Roko-Leni Ukic at point guard. Ukic will also look to prove something after spending last season in a reserve role at Barcelona. Roma's other weapons are the experience and long arms of Gregor Fucka, who won the 2003 Euroleague with Barcelona, and the tough defense led by David Hawkins and Roberto Gabini, which has resulted in the second most fouls committed in the league this season. Lottomatica also has power forward Erik Daniels available for the first time this season after recovering from a hand injury. Lakovic has been joined by center Mario Kasun and forward Jordi Trias as the top performers for Barcelona so far this season, but the club is among the deepest in the competition with at least two experienced players at every position. In fact, 10 players are averaging more than 10 minutes per game and Lakovic and Trias are the only Barca guys averaging more than 25. Playmaker Pepe Sanchez and Lakovic lead one of league's best passing attacks, though the team has suffered with poor perimeter shooting. The backcourt matchups in this game promise to provide excitement with the likes of Ukic, Hawkins, Stefansson and Allan Ray competing against Sanchez, Lakovic, Gianluca Basile and Alex Acker, but the battle in the paint could prove to be the crucial aspect. With Daniels injured, Roma had been starting the 1.98-meter Gabini at power forward, but Barcelona has six players standing 2.06 meters or taller at the big man spots. If Kasun, Trias, Fran Vazquez and co. can control the paint, it will be a big boost for the visiting side. However with Daniels available, he could help Lorbek and Fucka for the challenge, and then Ukic, Stefansson and Hawkins could use their home rims to pile up points as Roma chases a much-needed home win.

Betting overview

According to latest news Roma recovered both Tonnoli and Danies and now they have complete roster. This game against Barca is a must win for them but in my opinion Roma is one of the most disrespected team in Euroleague by bookies. They already lost 4 games but Roma is only team in whole Europe which played only one game at home so far... And this is huge factor for them because Roma at home is very tough opponent and their arena is one of the most difficult to win in Europe. As for today's match I don't any seriuos weakness in roster before this match with Barcelona. I am absolutely sure that Roma is capable of winning this one. Also we must remember that Ukic and Fucka should extra-motivated against their ex-team and coach. Maybe Fucka is not so dangerous but Roko Leno Ukic really improved this year and I think he will do his best to prove that Ivanovic did mistake in offseason by cutting him out of the roster.

As for Barca.. As always great team with many good players but they still have problems in away matches. I analyzed their away games in last 3 seasons and found that they are very weak on hot arenas. Currently they won only 6 of 25 games on such arenas. And their motivation for this match is not so high as Roma's because they are feeling sage in standings with 3 victories in 5 matches. No, I am talking that Barcelona is going to lose this game but I think that motivation factor is for sure on Roma side.

All in one I can't accept odds on Roma to win set at 1.80 and higher. My estimations for Roma win is 65% and fair odds for such percentage should be 1.42-1.48. So I suggest you to pick Roma to win with medium stake. Pinnacle as always offering highest odds for this outcome.

 

 

Other picks I consider today:

 

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