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Euroleague Betting Picks: Week 11 (Thursday) PDF Print E-mail
Written by Alleks   
Thursday, 10 January 2008

Maccabi Tel AvivVS Unicaja

Maccabi Elite vs Unicaja Malaga
 
Maccabi Elite will take another stab at the top spots in Group B when it hosts co-leader Unicaja at Nokia Arena in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Thursday night. Maccabi, which can clinch a spot in the Top 16 already this week with a win or a Cibona loss, can theoretically move to second place in the standings with a big win. However for Maccabi, which enters the game at 7-3, to surpass Unicaja (8-2), it must win by at least 23 to erase a 93-70 loss it suffered in Spain in November.

Bynum who was arrested early this week was under huge press this week but Maccabi coach said that that Maccabi never leave players in difficult situation and denied all rumours that Bynum will be sent off from a team. According to Isralian press Bynum expected to play. He is not in jail and is training with a team. Also another good news is that Vujcic  training with team but he is not expected to play yet. But anyway his role even at trainings is very important.

Unicaja have Santjago back into the roster after injury and Popovic is questionable because of high fever he had. Unicaja have a important match this weekend against Cajasol in ACB where they can't lose so it's hard to expect super motivation from Unicaja in today's match. Scariolo is not a coach who is playing for a win in every game and he proved this many times.

Betting preview

Maccabi set as right favorite here but it's clear that Maccabi improved and new coach. At home they are very strong and only Lithuanians teams managed to beat them in last 3 years at Nokia Arena. Unicaja is currently thinking about other goals that a win and first spot in the group. They need to give playing experience for Santjago and save mental energy for weekend match. While Maccabi players with huge home crowd will be seeking for revenge and I believe in them today. I expect Maccabi to dictate tempo and control game rhytm today. While only goal Unicaja will try to hold today will be not to lose by more than 23 points.

Prediction: Maccabi 86 - 72 Unicaja

Pick: Maccabi (-5) @ 1.90 Expekt.com 5/10

OlympiacosVS CSKA

Olympiakos vs CSKA Moscow

Injury-riddled Olympiacos Piraeus will host CSKA Moscow at the Peace and Friendship Arena on Thursday in a group A game. The Reds have battled the injury bug all season and have not had a single player start all 10 games yet. This week the team lost leading scorer Arvydas Macijauskas and big center Jake Tsakalidis for at least two weeks each. Despite its woes, head coach Pini Gershon’s side has won its last two games – including its first road win of the season – to improve 6-4 and remain strong in the battle for a top spot in the Group leading into the Top 16. Meanwhile CSKA is on a seven game winning streak that began with an 88-79 home win over Olympiacos in November.

Betting preview

CSKA was looking very good this weekend against Dynamo Moscow. With Savrasenko back into roster Messina will finally clear last weak spot in his team. With full big man rotation CSKA should be unstoppable. Olympiacos already showed that they are no great in low-tempo games and with Macijauskas out they can fail in offense today as many team fails against Moscow team defense. The only hope as for me it's great game from Greer and M.Jacskon but Greer will play under huge defensive press from J.R.Holden and Jackson only by himself can't win this game. Sure home crowd support can help Olympiacos but honestly speaking it's not a factor when you play against CSKA.

CSKA should be very motivated today not only because they always play only for a win but also because Papaloukas, Zisis are playing at home in Greece, and Siskauskas also likes such kind of games. When CSKA is in good shape (and they are) they can lose only to themselves. And I can't see this scenario today in Greece.

I expect CSKA to dictate tempo and to stop Olympiacos offense. This should be enough to get 5-10 points win.

Prediction: Olympiacos 72 - 78 CSKA

Pick: CSKA to win @ 1.73 PinnacleSports 5/10
 

Olimpija LublianaVS Zalgiris

Olimpija vs Zalgiris

New head coach Aleksandar Dzikic will lead Union Olimpija out for the first time when his club hosts Zalgiris Kaunas on Thursday night at the Tivoli Arena in Ljubljana, Slovenia. Dzikic took over the reins after Memi Becirovic resigned over the weekend and now has little time to light a fire under his charges with the Top 16 looming in the background. At 3-7, Olimpija will need at least three wins in its remaining four games to have a real shot at advancing. And with two of those games against the bottom two in the standings and another against second-places Tau Ceramica, it could be said that this home game is the key to that happening. Meanwhile Zalgiris has reeled off four straight wins to improve to 6-4 and would already clinch a spot in the Top 16 with a win this week.

Olimpija is one of the toughest opponents for lithuanian club they won 8 of 11 games between teams.. sure it's worth to say that Zalgiris won last 3 games but here I think some value is on Olimpija side. Because of home factor, motivation (new coach and they still have theoretical chances to promote into Top-16) and some important players seems to back for Olimpija..

Also side bookies knows their business well and we should listen and understand them too. That's how I see this logic: Zalgiris won against Montepaschi, won against Tau Ceramica.. won against Prokom and Virtus.. 4 wins in a row should be respected by linesmakers.. But if linemakers are respecting Zalgiris I think they would set them as more clear favorites in Ljubliana.. But we don't see this in the line. In my opinion Zalgiris is not so good as it many of us may think.. I still don't see anything in their game that could remind their best years.. they have good winning record but most of those wins are mostly based on opponents troubles with roster and some luck from Zalgiris.. As for level of game  I really can't say anything good about Zalgiris.. Still no coach factor, lucky first away win in 2 years against Prokom - also many factors why Zalgiris could be overrated here by public. And this is a reason why bookies give us so high odds on Zalgiris to win..

Also Zalgiris will qualify into next round if they lose today by less than 19 pts.. I hardly see Olimpija win against Tau Ceramica in Spain next week and this will push Zalgiris to Top-16. While Olimpija have good chances to promote if they win today, against Virtus and away against Prokom.. Also they need to build solid handicaps in this games to get better point difference.

The only problem why I am still thinking to back or not to back Olimpija is their level of game.. I have not seen their games in last few weeks and away from home this is different team as well as Zalgiris. But with home crowd support they clearly lost only one game against Tau Ceramica while in all others they won (Prokom, Olympiacos and CSKA) or were close the victory (match vs Montepaschi when they had 5-6 points advantage few minutes left but wasted it with stupid turnovers and technical fouls).

I see small value in Olimpija win and will try it with medium-low stake. But this is pick a but risky so be careful.

Prediction: Olimpija 81 - 76 Zalgiris

Pick: Olimpija @ 2.16 PinnacleSports 3/10
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