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Euroleague Betting Picks & Leans. Week 2 (wednesday) |
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Written by Alleks
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Wednesday, 31 October 2007 |
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I think it's important for everyone to know how tipster is playing and how to understand those 2/10, 6/10 and 9/10 and how to apply it to yours betting strategy. That's why I decided to add some info here. I think this will help to understand my units selection bette and apply to your strategy.
1/10 - low stake. Selection have value but it's very risky bet and its size should not be something around 25% of your average bet size (i.e. example 250 usd if your nominal is 1000 USD) . Usually I don't use such stakes because I am more used to play on 3, 5, 7 and 10 of 10 stakes.
3/10 - medium-low stake. Good pick in my eyes, but I don't enough confidence to put nominal stake.. Put 60-80% percent of your average bet size here.
5/10 - medium stake. Good confident pick for your nominal stake.
7/10 - medium-high stake. I have higher confidence on this pick and advice to bet higher stake.. around 1.5 of your nominal.
10/10 - high stake. Special reasons bet. I rarely post picks with such confidence and advice to double your nominal stake on this selection. But your stake should be higher than 5-10% of your bankroll but this depends from your staking strategy.
Efes Pilsen - Armani Jeans Milano
D.Blatt factor looks a bit overestimated in Efes games. Sure he is great coach but even he needs time to build a team and own schemes. In his golden year in Benetton his team results in the beginning of the season also were not impressive and the same picture we have these days in Stambul. Public expect to see immediate results but Efes is struggling to cover bookies handicaps in domestic championship and Euroleague. Today against we see 9.5 points handicap and it's looking a bit higher than it should be. AJ Milano changed coach and club president but last week their game was awful. This trend was ended only in 2nd part of the game with Benetton but it's hard to expect great game from nothing. For me AJ Milano is not ready for this season and I don't know what to expect from them today in Turkey. Anyway I see a bit more nervous game for both teams and Efes defense should improve step by step while AJ Milano offense often struggles against good defensive team.
So my lean for this match is under but there is a risk because of poor AJ Milano defense these days. My line is Efes 77.5 - 69 Milano.
Expected score: Efes Pilsen 78 - 69 AJ Milano
Pick: Under 158 @ 1.90 3/10 PinnacleSports (read PinnacleSports review)
Panathinaikos vs Brose Baskets
PAO have derby this weekend with Olympiacos but I think Obradovic is not thinking about Olympiacos now. His team performance is not in optimal conditions especially in offense where they can't score easy points. They have many experienced players but most of them are not very strong individually - that's why PAO can't score easy points. Sure Jasikivecius, Batiste and Becirovic will improve going into season but this day they mostly rely on their defense and experience to win games.
Brose Baskets is a low tempo team with great defense and I would not be surprised to see more closer game than it's showed in betting line. But sooner or later PAO class, longer bench and home factor should play into their favor and one 10-0 run will decide this game into greek side factor. I expect PAO to win by 10-15 points.
Expected score: Panathinaikos 77 - 64 Brose Baskets
Pick: Brose Baskets +18 @ 1.95 4/10 PinnacleSports (read PinnacleSports review) You should login or register to read prediction for Roanne-Partizan and Unicaja-Cibona games.
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