Euroleague Betting Leans for Week 1

Written by Alleks

Wednesday, 24 October 2007

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Virtus Bologna vs Zalgiris Kaunas

According to latest information Virtus decided to break contract with Delonte Holland (11.7 pts per game, 28 minutes) and this could be a big blow for them because he was a starter. Virtus sure have substitutes for him but it always hard to lose a key players. Also one week ago there was a scandal between group of the players, sponsor and coach so looks like something is wrong inside the team. In italian basketball league their results looking good (4-2) but they still lack constancy and it's hard to predict how good they will perform today.

Zalgiris have good roster but it is still uknown how they will look like on high level. Till now they played in LKL and BBL matches and did not lose any match (but opponents were easy), than they had some exhibition game in USA and back to Lithuania only this weekend. Zalgiris coach was very worried about team physical conditions after this US trip when they lost all games. When Grigas joined this team Zalgiris started to play better defense and this year he wants to continue playing in this manner. In all season games (except vs NBA teams) Zalgiris did not allow more than 83 points and I think they could defend their basket well against Virtus today.

It is still hard to believe in Zalgiris in away matches because they are very poor in away games in last 2 seasons so I prefer to stay away from choosing a winner here. But handicap drop from 6 to 5 points is good sign that line is a bit wrong. I think that 3.5-4 handicap line is more fair for this match and I think that Zalgiris may suprise here but as I already said it's better to skip winner prediction.

Talking about pick selection in my opinion 166.5 line is at least 4.5 points higher than it should be. But taking into consideration that both teams have huge 3-pointer shooting ability it could be a bit risky to take under here. But for medium-low stake it worth a shot.

Aris vs Unicaja

In my opinion Unicaja have better roster than Aris this year and is in better shape because they had 4 official games while Aris played just one game in domestic league. But we should not forget that Unicaja never was a great away team and Aris arena is one of the hottest in Europe. I expect some matchup disbalance for Aris in this matchup but if they will find their shot & game like they did this weekend against Olympia this game would be an equal one. Taking into consideration that Unicaja lost both away games in ACB league and won 2 games at home against weak opponents I prefer to stay away from this game because many will depend on unpredictable factors like players psychology, luck and shooting percentage.

I think that odds in the line are fair and this line don't have any value. But Aris is capable of suprises on their court so I predict very hard 4-5 points win for Aris but recommend you to stay away from betting on this match.

Montepaschi Siena vs Union Olimpija

Montepaschi Siena looking really well-prepared in-form team before this Euroleague debut after long absence in elite. Both teams have long bench but Italian team have more experienced and higher class players. At home they usually play very strong and usually cover handicaps if those are under 10 points. Today bookies decided to give us 13-14 handicap spread what is looking a bit high in my opinion but knowing Olimpija away sindrom it's better to skip this match. It is simply hard to find any value in this game with this odds. I expect Montepaschi to win by 12-15 points.

Panathinaikos vs. Lottomatica Roma

Roma will be without two players Erik Daniels and Simone Bagnoli, but both of them are not so important for rotation. Both teams are not showing great form lately especially Pao which don't have enough playing experience and could be a tired after NBA trip (by the way Obradovic was very dissapointed with his team performance in those NBA matches). Handicap spread looks a bit high because Roma should in better shape while PAO just starting their season and it's hard to expect optimal game from greek team.

I think that Roma will be able to stay in the game for 3 quarters but sooner or later PAO will make their run to win this game. But I don't think that they will trash their opponents. I expect PAO to win by 9-12 points and if you will find Roma with +15 handicap it's probably worth a shot with medium-low stake.

Partizan vs Barcelona

Partizan have lost a lot of potential (goodbye to Perovic, Drobnjak, Cummings and Bogdanovic) in offseason. The arrival of Milt Palacio and the improvement of Tepic, Pekovic, Velickovic and Tripkovic Kecman is good for Adriatic League but I doubt that this is enough for Euroleague especially for clashes against big teams like Barcelona. Even their really hot Pionir arena can't help to get better class and better team play. Partizan coach feels that his team is not ready for this match but he expects them to fight and for sure they will fight.. but I think that there is no chances to win for them.

Barcelona lost Navarro in offseason, but Basille reborn and with Lakovic on the field Barca looking even more dangerous if their sniper get a "hot hand". Ivanovic wants to win this game according to his interview and if Barcelona will play for a win they will shoud win this one. Reasons are simple.. Barcelona is simply a better team in all aspects. More experience, better bench, good defense and mentally they are looking really good.

Talking about line it worth to say that handicap line is looking fair enougn because Partizan is always difficult to beat at home but I see very small chances to win this game. So I recommend you to take Barcelona with odds over 1.50.

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