DKV Joventud - Tau Ceramica: Preview and Pick

Written by Alleks

Thursday, 27 November 2008

DKV Joventud - Tau Ceramica

MATCH PREVIEW

An all-Spanish showdown in Group C takes place on Thursday when DKV Joventut hosts Tau Ceramica in Badalona. The two teams just faced each other in the Spanish League last Thursday, also in Badalona. Tau downed Joventut 83-97 behind 24 points from Igor Rakocevic. Tiago Splitter added 21 and 12 rebounds, while Bracey Wright led Joventut with 22 points. Of course, stopping Rakocevic will be the main issue for DKV. Rakocevic is right at the prime of his career and currently is the Euroleague top scorer at 21.8 points per game, hitting 12 of 21 three-pointers and making all 19 free throws that he has attempted. Even with forward Pete Mickeal in doubt, Tau counts on a solid backcourt that features former Euroleague assists champion Pablo Prigioni, former Joventut swingman Sergi Vidal, playmaker Mustafa Shakur, small forward Fernando San Emeterio and combo guard Robert Hite, who missed last week's game against Joventut due to stomach problems, but is fully recovered. Prigioni is set to have a key matchup against Demond Mallet, as Joventut has no other pure playmaker available with Ricky Rubio still sidelined.

Pau Ribas seems the right man to guard Rakocevic due to his intensity and quickness, while Wright will test his scoring skills against him. Ferran Laviña and Simas Jasaitis, who played for Tau last season, will share minutes at small forward against Vidal and San Emeterio. Meanwhile, Luka Bogdanovic has improved as the full-time power forward, as he can open the court with his three-point shots. And on the topic of three-pointers, few players are as effective as Tau power forward Mirza Teletovic. Edu Hernandez-Sonseca offers size and timing against Splitter, in yet another key matchup. If Hernandez-Sonseca gets into foul trouble, Henk Norel and Jan Jagla will see minutes at center, as Pops Mensah-Bonsu remains sidelined. Tau needs Splitter to play aggressive along with Will McDonald, who is having a career-best Euroleague season so far. Tau rolled in Badalona last week, not giving Joventut many chances. The hosts have surely learned from their mistake and both teams scored more than 100 points in the Spanish League this weekend. Expect a way different game this time around.

BETTING ANALYSIS

Their last game ended with another Joventud loss 83:97 and of the main reasons of this loss is tactical mistake of Joventud. They tried to make game fast-paced and offensive minded but offensively they can't match up with powerful Tau Ceramica offense. So this time I expect them to choose another tactics with low pace basketball and better defense. Joventud proved that they can defend under 80 points and if they will find a way to stop Tau offense under 78 points they will have chances to win this game. Unfortunately for them Tau also can play defensive style and be even better than in such basketball.

Let's see who will win this game but I will try with low-medium picks the under 165.5 here because it looks to high for me. One week ago bookmakers set 156.5 points line for their duel in ACB league and 9 points line movement looks too much for me. I think that this game has good chances to stay in the 153-160 points range.

Pick: Under 164.5 @ 1.90 Sportingbet (OT not included)

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