The defending champs begin their title defense on Wednesday when CSKA Moscow hosts Armani Jeans Milano at CSKA Universal Sports Hall in the Russian capital. CSKA has a fully reloaded roster for the new season, with much of last season’s squad back and a number of new faces joining. Meanwhile Milano unveils a roster drastically different than last season’s as it aims to take a step forward to challenge for a spot in the Top 16. The teams will be a little familiar with one another after meeting in a preseason game six weeks ago.
CSKA was the victor that time 63-81 behind 13 points and 7 rebounds from Erazem Lorbek. David Hawkins paced Milano with 21. The visitors will need a big output from their backcourt to have a chance to challenge in Moscow, where CSKA has not lost a regular season Euroleague game in over two-and-a-half seasons, dating back to January 2006 – a streak of 16 straight wins.
BETTING ANALYSIS There is no reason to talk about handicap because it depends only from CSKA motivation and level of play. If everything will go fine for them I don't see any problems to win by 15-20 pts or allow visitors to cut the lead down to 8-12 from 17 as it often happens when bench players step in for CSKA. Smodis will probably play too for Moscow team so I can't see any advantage where italians can compete with CSKA.
As for total there some thoughts that this game should be high scoring. Both teams are defensive minded and according to stats both plays in low tempo however you never know what kind of offense CSKA will show. At the start of the season CSKA form is not yet at best standards but they scored 100+ in last Russian Superleague game. They have deep rotation of best players but CSKA has never been a show-type team they play only for result and honestly speaking I hate to analyze them because often they play in different way. Today I would give 81.5-64.5 line because should AJ Milano will have pretty much troubles with CSKA defense. AJ Milano does not have strong individual players who can create a shot for themselves so many attacks will be empty because CSKA defense is hard to crack with pick-and-rolls or 3-pointers bombing.
I think that total could be lower than 148.5 but I don't think that it's a good bet. Maybe as a TV-Pick I would take under 148.5 but I would not be suprised with something like 85-66 for CSKA so it's better to stay away from betting on this match.