
The United States men's national basketball team is the representative for the United States of America in international men's basketball. Considered the best national basketball team in the world, Team USA is historically the most prestigious, and successful team in international competition, medaling in all fifteen Olympic tournaments it has entered, coming away with twelve golds.
However, Team USA's renewed dominance has lessened in recent years. Facing increased competition from international teams, helped in no small way by the expansion of basketball sparked by the 1992 Dream Team, the USA failed to win a medal at the 2002 World Championship, finishing sixth. The 2004 Summer Olympic team lost three games on its way to a bronze medal, a record that represented more losses in a single year than the country's Olympic teams had suffered in all previous Olympiads combined. But what a real chances?
USA Men are for sure motivated to prove the world who is the best nation in basketball. No doubts they have most talented roster with 12 great athletes who jump higher, move quicker, dunk easier, steal ball, run the floor, force turnovers and score a lot of points in each match. But is this enough to win Gold at Beijing Olympic Games?
As for me the answer to this question is PROBABLY NO. There at least 3 teams in Beijing who can win against USA: Lithuania, Spain and Greece. 2 of them already have winning experience against americans Lithuania and Greece, while Spain have never played against USA so far but they are currently the best TEAM in the world if we talk about their level of play on the floor.
In my opinion there several things team must have to win against USA. Here they are:
- Not to lose balls
- Play excellent zone defense
- Have physically strong centers inside the paint
- Team must force american to play at low pace
Any of 3 teams I have listed can do these things but Spain is absolutely the best USA-Killer contender. They will meet in the group before playoffs but don't expect Greece or Spain to show all the cards before playoff.
USA should go to semifinals without problems but since than expect tougher life. European teams will turn 6th gear and will start playing on different level. I predict USA to be in the Finals but during a playoffs they will be shocked with real level of world basketball. Even Russia if they will meet in quarterfinals could end American Dream with their smart defense.
As for odds analysis I think that 1.30 as market price on USA to win Gold is too low odds to take if you believe in USA. Take a lot at
poll results which was runned on Betonbasket.com almost 100 basketball experts voted and only 58% agreed with USA to win Gold. According to this expectation correct odd on USA to win Gold should be 1.58-1.60. And I think that this is fair line at this moment. At least I expected to see 1.60 during on USA to win during a game against Spain in Final Game of the Tournament. For sure things are not going to so easy as games against China or Angola in opening round.
Long term pick: Spain to win @ 6.4 Betfair (to sell later with odds around 2.2-3.0 in the finals)