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Spain vs Croatia
Spain will probably play without Marc Gasol but with their 10 man rotation this should not a big problem especially if older brother Po is on the field. Spain defense is not allowing opponents to score over 75 points and in the playoff mode they should defend even better. Spain have an advantage in all aspects of the game over Croatians and if everything will go well they should get this win without big troubles.
Croatia lost their shooting guard M.Popovic due the injury while Z.Planinic is listed as probable after missing match against Iran. For sure Croatian team will try to do their best but honestly speaking I was not impressed with their offense against well organized defense which was provided by Lithuania in 2nd half and Argentina during most of the game. They often can handle their own tempo especially on defense and making turnovers in offense. Croatia showed many of their weakness in the group stage and such experienced well coached team like Spain should offer many defensive tricks to stop Croatia offensive power. I expect Spain to build early half time and then to increase it up to 20 points. I hope at the end they would not lower their power and will win this game by 15-25 points.
Prediction: Spain 86 – 68 Croatia
Pick: Spain (-11.5) @ 1.79 Betfair Lithuania vs. China
Lithuania is a huge 10-points favorite in this match but don’t expect things to be so easy for them in Beijing which is the heart of China. China players will step up with top motivation and will give their hearts to win this game to make history. According to latest news there were some troubles between Yao Ming and Kazlauskas because of his playing time with Greece but that should be a big problem before this match. All those problems will be left outside of court while on court China will again shoot 3-pointers, run and search for Yao hands. With home crowd support I expect them to give a fight.
Lithuania for sure are better team with more individual class and winning history including Athens Olympic Games quarterfinals victory against China by 20 pts (95-75). Lithuania was looking really great on the group stage but let’s be honest the level of their opponents was lower than in Group B where 3 medal contenders were playing: USA, Spain and Greece. Lithuania has many options to win this game but they should find the right mood to start this match well to avoid problems in the end.
I think that 7.5 points handicap would be more fair here because of home field for China and good performance of Kazlauskas team against USA and Spain. Why they should fear first-placed Lithuania? I don’t expect this game to be easy for Lithuania but in the end class and experience of Lithuania should prevail.
Prediction: Lithuania 82 – 74 China No pick for this match
Argentina vs Greece
In my opinion Greece is the clear favorite to win this quarterfinal. For sure there are many reason to place Argentina as favorite but all those reasons are historical and situational. Argentina is a public team, last winner of Olympic games, they are coming from 2nd position in the group A by winning 4 games in a row… But they never have meet tough defense on group stage, they did not played against top-materials expect Lithuania which won against them. They shoot 58% of their throws which is hard to repeat against tough greek defense which is not allowing opponents to shoot with more than 45%. Argentina still has problems with rotation on 8-12 positions where they don’t have class and experience.
Greece on other side has all that Argentina does not have: bench, class, iron defense, improved offense and great motivation. Don’t forget that Argentina killed Greek dream in Olympic Games in Athens when this team did their first steps to the euro basketball crown in 2005.
It should be an exciting game to watch but I can’t agree with Greece being underdog in this game. I would set them as 2.5 favorite with odds around 1.7 and I almost sure that during a game we will see these odds on Greece. Greece should force Argentina to play low tempo contact basketball to have more chances to win this game. However with new Greece offense they can win even by playing in the 160 pts range.
Prediction: Argentina 69 - 75 Greece
Pick: Greece to win @ 2.56 Betfair or Greece +5 @ 1.87 PinnacleSports USA vs Australia Most recently, the USA faced Australia in an exhibition contest on Aug. 5 in Shanghai, China, earning an 87-76 win over a determined Australian squad that was playing without NBA star Andrew Bogut (Milwaukee Bucks). Dwyane Wade led four U.S. scorers in double figures with 22 points, followed by 16 points from LeBron James, 13 points from Kobe Bryant and a 12-point, 10-rebound performance from Carmelo Anthony. Patrick Mills and Chris Anstey tallied 13 points apiece for the Aussies.
American scouting coach reports about preparation for this game:
"When we played them in Shanghai, I thought they played us as well as anybody in those friendly matches. They competed hard. It was a great match for us because we gambled a lot defensively, and it helped teach us that against these international teams you can't gamble because they all make shots. We have came a long way since that game. That was a learning game for us, and I think we have really progressed since then.
I think what they will do defensively is beg us to shoot. We shot well last game, but teams don't still believe it. They know that they can't pressure us, so what they will do is try to keep us in front and slow the tempo of the game. As soon as we come into halfcourt, they are going to just pack it in, like a zone but it will be a soft man-to-man. They will try to limit us from getting to the basket, limit us from getting inside and beg us to shoot outside, so we have to make our shots."
I think that we can expect Australia trying to avoid fast pace basketball but USA will control this game from the first until the last minute. Australia has enough power inside the pain to rebound well against americans and if they will not americans to dominate under boards they will have good chances to hold 30 points handicap. But also it will be important to avoid big numbers of turnovers. Australian guards are not the guys to trust because of their inexperience on international level.
Americans have very physical defense which is one of the best here in Beijing with only 70.8 points per game. Australia will probably score a little bit more because they are more balanced team than Germany which was limited to 57 points. I expect Australia to score in the 72-81 points range while Americans should not have big problems in offense. It would not be easy to score over 100 points without domination on the boards and that's why I think that handicap for this match should be a bit lower around 24-26 points.
Prediction: USA 98 - 76 Australia
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