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Olympic Basketball: Day 5 Predictions |
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Written by Alleks
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Sunday, 17 August 2008 |
 Today we have the last day of group stage and pretty strong lines. It's much harder to find value picks in the middle of the tournament because now bookmakers set right lines for the most lines. This time I will cover only those match which probably have value. I still did not place any bets and not sure if I will place them because I can't see strong advantage over the line.
 Greece - ChinaHere I would set a bit higher total. My line woud be 79.5-72 into Greece side because greeks are capable of scoring 80+ points, while China is feeling very great in front of sold out arena and those 3-points shot make them crazy. But on other side it's very risky to bet on over here because both teams are very unstable in offense and if Greeks will be forced to shot balls I can't be sure than they will attack with high percentage. If shots will not be in the basket expect Greece to turn on their defense. So I prefer to stay away from this match but if you want to place a bet here I would advice over 147.5.
Prediction: Greece 84 - 72 China
Recommended pick: over 147.5
Australia - Lithuania
I think that 166.5 total line is set too high. Lithuania is under 78 points team in defense while Australia is not so weak in defense as its result shows. They can defend under 85-86 points easily and taking into consideration that both coaches could let bench players to play more I am not sure if 166 total will covered. At least I expected to see something around 158-161 points. My estimations are Lithuania around 82-87 points while Australian total should be in the 72-78 points range. So 84.5-75 is my line for this match.
Prediction: Australia 76 - 84 Lithuania
Recommended pick: under 166.5 USA vs Germany
35.5 points handicap looks too much for Germany against USA but so far americans have full control against all opponents. Only they decide when to stop and if they should do stop. I don't see reasons to trash Germany however I can't trust german guards like Hamann or Roller against physicaly strong american players. Let's see how this game will end but I expect Germany to lose by 25-35 points not by 40.
Prediction: USA 96 - 71 Germany
Recommended pick: Germany +36.5 New articles on this topic:
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