 VS  Germany vs Spain Spain almost shocked the world with their overtime against China but don't expect this story to repeat again. I think that Spain still remember how Nowitzki closed them a door into Eurobasket'05 final and they will not understimate germans as they understimated China. 14.5 handicap looks close to fair line because I expect Spain to win by double digits but can't tell if it will be 12 or 17. Spain is still work only on 70-80% of their abilities and save mental and physical energy for deciding games.
Germany will have many problems in this match especially in offense where they don't have enough power to beat Spain zone defense. I expect to see Germany scoring somewhere in the 65-73 points range while Spain should be able to score over 80 points. So far they had only game including those they had played before Olympic games has started when they did not score 80 points (against China). Also I don't expect defensive battle here because for Germany it would be stupid to play for a win here because they have much much more important game against China for promotion.
Prediction: Germany 67 - 83 Spain Pick: Spain over 81.5 @ 1.90 Unibet  VS
Australia vs Iran Both opponents already played in June friendles series so they know each other perfect. My statistical analysis of their stats showed that my statistical line for this match would 92-63.5. But that was a friendlies game in the beginning of the preparation with many players missing especially on Australia side. Know things looks complicated for Australia because they must win games against Iran and Russia to qualify. So for them this game will be important without doubt. They have many weapons to shut down Iran offense and use their weakness in their own. For this game looks like a one-sided game with Australia comfortable win. I doubt that Iran will score more than 65 points in this match but handicap and total should be decided by Australian offensive performance. Unfortunately Australian bench is not so strong to trust them so I decided to skip this mach. Prediction: Australia 87 - 63 Spain
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China vs Angola
Both teams need a win in this match but expect China to dominate on the field. Things were complicated for China at Diamond Ball Tournament 3 weeks ago when they won 82:74 but current form of China is much better and it was noticable in their last 2 games with USA and Spain. They hit 3 pointers, they rebound well but they still don't know how to win games on class. Here they will have class advantage and huge height advantage. Also China have 8 players in rotation and this is another reason why they should win this game. Angola is a good team in general but they luck a height and 2-3 players on the bench. They have only 6 players who can play on this level without impact on team performance on the field and that's why they are losing games. But 14.5 handicap is a solid handicap I would not like to touch. 3 weeks ago I was thinking about backing Angola +9 and now I see much better China but +14.5 on Angola is a bit risky in my opinion because I doubt that China will allow Angola to take rebounds as easy as they did against them on Diamond ball tournament. More interesting for betting purposes looks over-bet. Angola have speed and they will try to run to score points. They also have good 3 point shot and if their game plan will work I expect them to score in the 68-75 points range. China have huge advantage under baskets and also great 3 point shooters. My estimations regarding China scoring range are 82-87 points. So my total line is 71.5-84.5 and it is a bit higher than offered by bookmakers. Prediction: China 84 - 72 Angola Pick: Over 150.5 @ 1.90 Unibet  VS.  Lithuania vs Russia
Revenge. Just nothing more to add. Lithuania will be top motivated to win this game with highest possible margin to show Russia its place in European basketball. I am almost sure that every player of Lithuania will die for his team on the field and will try to win this game. But that's is only emotions. They could have huge positive impact on team performance or may put too big psycholical pressing. When I was asked in the midle of the Euroleague season what line I expect to see for Lithuania - Russia on Olympic Games I said: Lithuania (-7.5). And bookmakers offer is currently almost the same 6 or 6.5 points. So I can't say that I see advantage over the line. I would say that line is correct but there are so many small points talking into Lithuania that I decided to make this bet. And here are the reason why Lithuania should cover the 5.5 points handicap handicap:
- Revenge factor
- Much deeper and productive bench
- Higher class
- Better offense
- Ability to defend under 75 points
- Not the best form of Russia with Khriapa out of form and Savrasenko missing whole season in CSKA
It's hard to predict the scenario of this game but I think that it should not be a walkover game. In the beginning of the match Russia should be able to hold Lithuania offense by using their main players and slowing the pace of the game but when bench will start playing Lithuania will do a run which will be held until the end. Honestly speaking I would be happy if Lithuania would not waste their mental energy in this match because most important games will come soon and every emotion is important here. I hope that Lithuania coaches will limit leaders minutes if game will be decided until the end of 3rd quarter as I expect. Prediction: Lithuania 85 - 72 RussiaPick: Lithuania (-5.5) @ 1.85 Unibet  VS
Greece vs USA
The last time the two teams met, however, Greece shocked the United States with a 101-95 victory in the semifinals of the 2006 FIBA World Championship. Here is an inside info from USA Scouting Coach:
 About Greece Style
They [Greece] didn' t play well against Germany, and they got beat by Spain, but in my opinion I think they are better than they were in 2006. Spanolis is a lot more mature, Diamantidus is better. They changed their center, and it's a different team. Their big guy, "Baby Shaq," he's bigger. He is one of those guys when he comes into the game, they don't care if he picks up offensive fouls, he just pounds it, pounds it, pounds it. They haven't shot well so far, and some people might say they aren't as good as they have been, but I disagree. We need to be mentally prepared and know that they will be a lot better than we what we saw from them against Spain for example.
They are the best team in the world in my opinion at penetrate and kicks. Most teams when they catch, they catch and shoot. But Greece is different, they catch and drive and then they kick. And they repeat that -- drive and kick, drive and kick -- until they have drawn all your help inside. That's when they like to shoot. The only guy that can really can break you down one-on-one is Spanolous. They also want to set high pick and roll screens, which they hurt us with in 2006. They want us to chase, and once we do, they swing it around the perimeter, and that's where they get you. As long as we don't get caught playing their system, we'll be ok. They want to control tempo, and we can't let them do that.
Defensive tasks
I don't think we can pressure too much and deny everything out on the pick-and-rolls. Coach K will decide exactly what we will do, but I think we will probably go under the screens when they are set high, and anything set on the side we will play normal. They also, like a lot of European teams, slip screens. They don't set, hold and wait like we do in America. They set and almost immedialy slip, so we have to react quicker and we can't get caught pressuring high. It's a little tough coming off Angola because that wasn't really a game that helps prepare you for Greece.
Offense
Well first we need to limit them to one shot, and we have to have five guys on the boards. We will get points in transition, but we also will have to play them in more of a half court setting than we played so far in this tournment. They are a good team. They played really well in the qualifying tournament to get here.
As I already said earlier Greece is playing different style now in offense. They use more pick-n-roll, the penetrate to the basket and they shot when have a chance. They are playing much aggressive than it was on Eurobasket'07 and this is a main reason why they are scoring 87.5 points per game (64.5 pts in defense). The average game pace in Greece game is 162 possessions. Americans are ready for low pace and half court game but their offensive schemes are based on creating one-on-one situations and physical contact. They provoke many fouls, they are agressive on rebounds and that's why their game tempo is much higher. I checked their game stats this summer and found that their games average pace is 180 possessions per game (avg. score 99-73). When USA and Greece played last time they game was 177 possessions. I expect to see the same tempo today. For this tempo Greece average numbers should be 94.5-69.5 while USA numbers should be around 91-73. But we have to have to remember that so far Greece defense was rolling against low-class teams and was not effective against Spain so I think that 69.5 is to low for them for this game. My own line for this game is 92.5-83 into USA side. I think that there are 2 good picks for this game Greece +20.5 and Greece to score over 76.5. It's hard to choose which is better but personally I have more sympathy for total line because Greece offense is too much understimated here because of so big handicap. But I would recommend to choose only one pick for this match because both depends on each other. If Greece score over 80 points handicap will be hold too if not than it will be 50/50 situation. Prediction: USA 93 - 84 Greece
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Argentina vs Croatia
This game will be broadcasted by Eurosport and will have a lot of public. But unfortunately I can't see any good picks for this game before the match. Because did perfect line by setting Argentina as favourite and high total. Argentina so far played excellent defense but Croatia is well balanced team and they are in good form so I expect a lot of points from both teams. I would be suprised to see high scoring game with total around 170 points but I am still have some doubts regarding Croatia performance against top material like Argentina.
Argentina needs this win more than Croatia but expect Croatia to fight until the end because only win can help them to fight fot top spot and possible good draw in quarterfinals. Argentina class and motivation should be a deciding factor in the end but I am not sure about confident win. I see this game pretty close until last minutes. Good game to watch.
Prediction: Argentina 89 - Croatia 83 New articles on this topic:
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