Angola

 

Strong points

After the retirement of Angolan legend Jean-Jacques Conceiçao, the emblematic and charismatic local star, and with Miguel Lutonda hitting the latter stages of his career, Carvalho has rebuilt his team around a younger generation, using a more balanced offense to make sure that every player is involved. Forward Olimpio Cipriano, who has just been elected the MVP of the Angolan National League, and power forward Joaquim "Kikas" Gomes are now the big scorers of this squad, alongside the undersized power forward but always effective Eduardo Mingas. Under Carvalho's watch, Angola captured gold at the 2007 FIBA Africa Championship with a victory on home soil over Cameroon.

This team is very fast and athletic. They always push the tempo and trying to score easy points. I like their motivation in each match and how they fight under baskets with taller opponents.  8 players in this team can hit a 3 pointer and they are very dangerous in this component.

All players knows each other very well because all of them are playing in 2 Angola clubs so team chemistry is on the high level here too.

Weak points

The most important weakness of this team is a short bench. They have only 6 players in their team who can play on good level and help team to fight with any opponent. When it comes to bench vs bench in some certain moments of the games they have minimal chances because of big difference between major team players and bench.

Another problem is that Angola don’t have real centers. They can’t defend under baskets against physically strong teams and also they can’t run positional offense because they can’t penetrate basket in positional offense.  If opponent don’t allow Angola to run and score 3 pointers African team has no chances to win a game.

Group Prediction

Angola will have no chances against top 3 teams of group B: USA, Spain and Greece. Against Germany and China they can provide some kind of surprises but don’t expect Germans or Chinese NT to underestimate Angola.  Germany should remember 3OT with Angola on last World Championship while China met this team on Diamond ball where won in a fight.  Every team will be serious against African championship on this tournament so I don’t expect Angola to promote from this group full of powerful team. However, I would not be surprised to see many close games with Angola participation.

China

 

Strong points

The Chinese Team's is build around Big Three:  2.26m Yao Ming, 2.14m Wang Zhizhi and 1.90m W.Liu. China has one tallest front line on this tournament and on good days this team can fight for a win with any European team. If Yao is playing at his best and is healthy it’s very hard to stop him under baskets. If opponents team concentrate their defense around Yao expect China to knock down with 3-pointers. In China team every player  who is on court can hit a 3-pointer. Only Yao is playing under baskets.

Another key point talking for China on this tournament is that they are playing at home and crowd will support them. This team has international experience because they played with same roster and coach on 2 big events (Olympic Games in Athens and World Championship in 2006).

Weak points

Yao means too much for this team. Players always seeking for him on the court because he is a safest option to score points and this make China game schemes very predictable for opponents. Experienced team double Yao and don’t let others to score 3-pointers and usually this is enough to win against China.
Team form is not at best. Yao missed second half of NBA season due the injury and is not ready to play for 35-40 minutes.  During Diamond Ball tournament China showed that their level of play is far away from optimal and it is a big question if Kazlauskas will be able to fit his team on time.

Group Prediction

China qualification will depend mostly on their games with Angola and Germany. Especially important game for them will be against Germany. Unfortunately for China Germany is clear favorite in this game because of their class, experience and motivation. They have all capabilities to stop China centers and win this game. Against Angola it should be a bit easier to win as their friendly game showed Angola players think different.  China don’t have power to fight with top 3 in Group A but will try to achieve their goal in 2 consecutive games with Angola and Germany. But I predict them to stay out of the quarterfinals stage with 1 victory over Angola.

USA

Strong points

USA Dream-Team has so many strong points that is difficult to name them all. I will try to list most important only. The main advantage over others teams here in China is athleticism. Americans are very strong physically and most of the teams here can’t compete with them. They are quicker, faster, jump higher, react quicker and finally have power in their bodies. It’s difficult to play against them because all 12 players in their roster are star-level players each with unique abilities and great physical power. I don’t see any team here on Olympics tournament that can compete with them in bench & physical power factors.

Also Americans play very tough and aggressive defense. They can press full court or concentrate on half-court defense. Their defensive schemes are different from defense we used to see in Europe because they use their physical power when defending. I would say that they start their offense from defensive sets. As result they steal a lot of balls from slower players and score a lot of easy points from fast breaks. Another source for easy points is better rebounding and fast pace of the game during all 40 minutes.

Their motivation to win Olympics gold after losing Olympic Games in Athens and than World Championship in Japan is huge. They came here to win and they have everything to achieve this goal.

Weak points

There are no many weak points in this team but they exist. First and most important one is that USA star players don’t like to play smart European-style basketball. They are not feeling comfortable when playing against zone defense, they are starting to panic when game is close and they can’t dictate their style of game.  Also their style of play is mostly based on their individual skills and at some points of the game they are acting like NBA star players but not as a team. It has no reflection with lower class teams but could be a factor on final stage of the tournament.

Group Prediction

Angola, China has no chances against USA. Germany has more talent but also have only theoretical chances of winning against USA.  Greece and Spain are capable for surprise but I don’t expect them to show their secrets how they plan to win against USA until playoffs. All should be satisfied with USA winning the group battle. However, I would not be surprised if USA will lose game in this group because at least 2 teams here have enough talent to beat them (Greece and Spain).

Germany

 

Strong points

German have very talented roster especially now when they added Chris Kamann to their roster. Now Dirk has more freedom in offense because Chris could take defensive job on his part.  Nowitzki is still a leader of this team but now his support staff is much more reliable than it was 3 years ago at Eurobasket where Germany reached the Final.  Germany play very organized in defense and offense and their game is very balanced. Most of the players inside this team had short season within their clubs and that helped them to have long preparation for this tournament.  Expect Germany to fit their system even better than it was in Athens during qualification tournament. During this tournament Germany showed that their offense now is better than ever with 87.4 average per game.

Looks like Olympics basketball tournament in Beijing will be last for most players in this team so expect top motivation from Germany in each match.

Weak points

The weakest point of this team is that most players don’t have serious international experience.  Yes, they played in Euroleague but they never were members of winning clubs. The luck of winning experience usually hurt Germany in deciding games against top teams.

Group Prediction

Most important games for Germany will be against Angola and China. Germany has everything to win against Angola and China but don’t expect easy games for them. Because Angola and China will fight like lions against Germany because only win against Germany can help to survive in this group. I expect class and experience to prevail in this fight and that’s why Germany is my favorite to be the 4th qualifier from this group.

Spain

Strong points

Spain in my opinion is a best team in Europe.  They have 12-man roster and each player is a big talent. They can play any type of basketball if needed but usually they dictate their own tempo in the games. They use hard zone defense, they run fast offense, they have huge 3-point shooting ability, they have power under baskets, and their bench players can change starters without any impact on game result. Spain have very effective offense and very tough defense and this helps them to destroy other teams.

Weak points

Spain team has only one weak place – their mentality. They are always looking great in friendlies, group stages but when it comes to final stages something happen with them. The latest example is Eurobasket’07 final against Russia. They were much better team, they played at home, they had double digit lead but the lost in final seconds… The same story happened with them in most of the competitions except one – World Championship in Japan. Where they managed to forget about everything including Gasol injury and ruined Greece hopes in Finals.

Group prediction

The apocalypses will happen if Spain would qualify from this group. But if you will ask me from which place they will qualify I would reply to your question. They will have WC rematch with Greece in first day, Spain is better team but Greece is tough opponent and was looking really great in Athens in July. I am not sure about Spain motivation in group match against USA. But they should claim their qualification easily in 3 games against Angola, China and Germany. I expect Spain to win 3 or 4 games in this group and qualify into next round from 2nd or 3rd position.  They should save some energy for playoff games and that’s why I don’t expect them to show their best in first week.

Greece

Strong points

Greece's EuroBasket gold-medal winning heroes of 2005 and silver-medal stars of the 2006 FIBA World Championship are still hungry. They're eager to make the next step, which is to show what they can do at the Beijing Games. With home-court advantage at the Olympic indoor arena in Athens, a legendary-player-turned coach in Panagiotis Yannakis and a talented and very experienced team - the Greeks thrashed Lebanon, Brazil, New Zealand and Puerto Rico to claim one of the last three spots for the Olympics. The list of great players in the Greek team is long. Dimitris Diamantidis, Theo Papaloukas and Vassilis Spanoulis will have leading roles as the guards. Closer to the basket are the likes of Kostas Tsartsaris, Antonis Fotsis and Panagiotis Vassilopoulos. Each is a warrior in the paint but each has the ability to step outside and bury three-pointers. Of the three, Vassilopoulos showed he had made major strides this season when he played at the qualifying event. Then there are Olympiacos big men Yannis Bourousis and Sofoklis Schortsianitis, two players who can fill the paint for the Greek National Team. They are very different players, though.

Greece still represents a powerful team with solid experience. But what I like is that Panagiotis Yannakis as coach did his home work well. He changed team offense because old schemes were not working on Eurobasket’07. Now Greek NT plays faster, aggressive on both ends of the floor and it if they will stay with this style in all their games they could achieve big goals here. They scored 92.75 points per game in qualification tournament and this is not happened by accident. It’s a new style of Greece basketball school presented by Panagiotis Yannakis.

Weak points

The only serious problem Greece had until this summer is their offense and style which looked like and old-fashioned on latest Eurobasket campaign. But after they changed they game style they fixed this problem. However, it will be much harder to play against same class teams during Olympic Games than dictate their new style over lower class Lebanon, Brazil, New Zeland and Puerto-Rico. Let’s see how they will look like against other top materials like Spain, USA, Lithuania and few others.

Also most of Greek players had bad seasons in their clubs. Papaloukas failed to find his form in CSKA (as well as Zizis), Diamantidis was not significant for PAO this year, Spanoulis still can’t find his pre-NBA form, Shortsianidis spend all season on lowering his weight, Fotsis had awful season in Dynamo. But when all of them are playing for Greece they always find their roles easy. But in deciding stages their season problems could have some weight.

Group Prediction

I see no problems for Greece to win against China and Angola. This should be enough to get out of this group but Greece could be a surprise team here. If they will show their best version they could finish with 4 or even 5 wins (they already won against Dream Team in Japan, why not to repeat story again). Most probably they will finish in 2nd or 3rd position (depending on their game with Spain) but they could provide some surprises and win a group, or finish 4th if something will go wrong against Germany, Angola or China.

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